Iran has instructed Yemen's Houthi movement to prepare to disrupt oil shipments through the Red Sea if the United States attacks Iranian power infrastructure, according to three sources familiar with the matter. This directive, discussed within Iran's leadership and communicated to the Houthis, introduces a significant new threat to global energy security.
The sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, indicated that the message was recently conveyed to the Houthi allies. Details regarding the method of communication or whether it followed U.S. President Donald Trump's recent threat to strike Iranian power infrastructure were not provided.
A source close to the Houthis reported that the group has completed preparations to target shipping lanes by positioning missiles and drones near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial chokepoint for Red Sea traffic. The source stated that the group is awaiting orders to commence operations.
Any disruption to the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could severely worsen the global energy crisis. This escalation risks simultaneously impacting the Middle East's two primary oil export routes: the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran previously closed, and now potentially the Red Sea waterway. Representatives from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who are present in Yemen are expected to have control over the decision to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait.
This development occurs amid heightened regional tensions. The Houthis recently launched missiles into Saudi Arabia, accusing the kingdom of bombing a facility under their control and breaking a four-year truce. Analysts note that any escalation in fighting that affects Red Sea infrastructure could threaten vital oil export routes.
Sources close to Riyadh have confirmed that Saudi Arabia is taking threats from Iran and the Houthis seriously, acknowledging the Yemeni group's coordination with Iran concerning the Red Sea.
The current conflict began on February 28, following U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, which led to Tehran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, a passage that previously handled approximately one-fifth of global energy supplies. Tensions have been particularly high since a fragile truce between Tehran and Washington collapsed in June, reigniting fears of full-scale conflict and further disrupting energy flows.
Currently, a substantial volume of Gulf oil is rerouted through a Saudi pipeline to the Red Sea. The waterway now accounts for about 7% of global energy shipments. Major shipping companies previously diverted cargo around Africa during earlier Houthi attacks on shipping, opting for a longer and more costly route. With Saudi Arabia diverting 70% of its energy exports via its Red Sea port of Yanbu, direct attacks on this infrastructure would significantly impact oil markets.
One regional source described Iran's strategy as an attempt to pressure the United States by highlighting the potential economic costs, including threats to Red Sea shipping and Saudi oil exports. This source noted that interrupting shipping in the strait does not require sophisticated weaponry.
Iran considers the Houthis part of its regional "Axis of Resistance," an alliance that includes Hezbollah and various Iraqi Shi'ite armed groups. While these groups have become involved in the broader regional conflict, the Houthi rebels have not formally joined the fighting. The U.S. alleges that Iran provides the Houthis with weapons, funding, and training, claims that Tehran denies.