Iran is poised to significantly increase its influence over the Strait of Hormuz under a prospective deal with Oman to jointly police the vital shipping lane. The agreement, finalized after five months of regional conflict, could grant Iran control over inbound maritime traffic, while outbound routes would be managed by both nations.
This development presents a potential setback for U.S. President Donald Trump, who faces domestic and international criticism as the U.S. finds itself in a diminished position compared to the conflict's outset. In February, the Strait was fully accessible, with 20 percent of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passing through its waters. However, traffic has since been severely disrupted as insurers withdrew coverage for vessels due to the threat of Iranian attacks.
Iranian spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei confirmed that geographical coordinates for the planned route have been agreed upon and that a joint statement is in its final stages of review, pending obstruction by unspecified third parties. He stated the talks focused on establishing safe shipping lanes that respect sovereign rights and address the national security interests of both Iran and Oman.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that negotiations concerning the Strait are distinct from broader discussions regarding Iran's nuclear program. The deal emerged as President Trump reportedly reconsidered launching a major U.S. offensive at the request of Saudi Arabia, while Qatar continues to mediate with Iran on behalf of the U.S.
This arrangement also leaves Israel in a difficult position, as its air force had been anticipating participation in air strikes that were ultimately canceled by President Trump. A senior Israeli official expressed that Trump had "left Israel in the fog."
If the Iran-Oman agreement is fully ratified, peace talks between Iran and the U.S. are expected to resume, potentially based on the terms of a Memorandum of Understanding established in June.