The race for the U.S. Senate seat in Iowa is shaping up to be a closely contested election in 2026, with a recent Fox News poll indicating Democrat Josh Turek holds a four-point lead over Republican Ashley Hinson. This contest is significant as Iowa has trended Republican in recent presidential elections, though a shift in favorability ratings for former President Donald Trump may be contributing to a more competitive Senate race.
According to the poll, conducted June 23-27, 2026, Turek leads Hinson 50% to 46%. The margin is within the poll's margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. Turek holds a notable advantage among voters who identify as extremely motivated to vote, leading by 15 points, driven largely by higher enthusiasm among Democrats compared to Republicans.
Turek enjoys a positive net favorability rating of 18 points (51% favorable, 33% unfavorable), while Hinson's net favorability is negative by 7 points (42% favorable, 49% unfavorable). The poll also revealed a significant decline in Trump's favorability in Iowa, with 42% viewing him favorably and 55% unfavorably—a 19-point swing since November 2024. This negative view of Trump is a key factor, as 50% of voters expressed concern about Hinson's ties to the former president, while only 37% expressed concern about Turek's liberal positions.
Economic issues appear to be major drivers in the Senate race. Inflation is the top concern for 39% of Iowa voters, followed by healthcare (14%), immigration/border security (13%), and political divisions (13%). Turek leads Hinson on issues of inflation, healthcare, and political divisions. Conversely, Hinson holds a substantial advantage on immigration.
The poll highlighted shifts in voter sentiment regarding their financial well-being, with 42% of Iowans reporting they are falling behind financially, a significant increase from 31% in November 2024. Only 11% feel they are getting ahead financially.
Turek's support is strong among women with college degrees, independents, urban voters, and those under 30. Hinson draws her backing from White evangelical Christians, men aged 45 and over, veterans, and men without college degrees. Her support is particularly strong among MAGA Republicans.
More than 82% of Turek's supporters say they are certain to vote for him, compared to 72% of Hinson's supporters, with nearly 3 in 10 Hinson supporters indicating they might change their minds. A larger percentage of Hinson supporters cite voting for her rather than against her opponent (77%), compared to Turek supporters (60%).
In the race for governor, Democratic nominee Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn by nine points. Sand also holds a more favorable personal rating, with 54% viewing him favorably and 33% unfavorably, while Lahn's ratings are negative.