Iowa Senate Race Tight as Cost of Living Dominates Voter Concerns, Poll Finds

The race for an open U.S. Senate seat in Iowa is closely contested, with Democrat Josh Turek holding a two-point advantage over Republican Ashley Hinson among likely voters, according to a new Fox News poll. The survey indicates Turek leading Hinson 49% to 47%, a margin within the poll's sampling error.

Among registered voters, Turek holds a four-point lead, a figure that has remained consistent since June. The poll highlights that economic concerns are a paramount issue for Iowa voters, with the cost of living cited by 60% of respondents as an extremely important factor in their Senate vote decision. This issue outranked other significant concerns such as former President Donald Trump's performance (43%), immigration (39%), and artificial intelligence technology (27%).

Voters who describe their families as falling behind financially, a group that has grown to 40% of Iowans from 30% previously, back Turek by a substantial 38-point margin. Conversely, those who feel they are holding steady or getting ahead favor Hinson by 14 and 53 points, respectively.

Turek also garners support from voters prioritizing the cost of living, Trump, and AI technology, while Hinson leads among those for whom immigration is the top concern. The poll also found that 57% of Iowa voters disapprove of President Trump's job performance, with 42% approving.

The poll further reveals a partisan divide in voter support. Democrats show strong unity behind Turek, with 96% of Democrats supporting him, compared to 87% of Republicans backing Hinson. Independents show a strong preference for Turek, favoring him by a two-to-one margin. Notably, 10% of Republicans are supporting Turek.

Control of the Senate is nearly evenly split among Iowa voters, with 49% preferring Democratic control and 48% favoring Republican control, aligning closely with the Senate matchup. Turek is leading among women by 11 points, suburban voters by 16 points, college graduates by 17 points, and independents by 32 points. Hinson is ahead among men by 7 points, those without a college degree by 6 points, rural voters by 14 points, and White evangelical Christians by 41 points.

In terms of candidate favorability, Turek holds a net positive rating of 48% favorable to 40% unfavorable, with 24% expressing strong unfavorable views. Hinson's ratings are less favorable, with 42% viewing her positively and 50% unfavorably, including nearly 40% who are strongly unfavorable.

Concerns about Hinson's perceived closeness to former President Trump appear to be a significant factor, with 52% of voters expressing worry about this connection, compared to 43% concerned about Turek's views being too liberal. This gap widens among those who are "extremely" concerned.

Supporters of Turek appear more committed to their choice, with 88% certain of their vote, compared to 77% for Hinson. Twice as many Hinson supporters, 20%, indicated they might change their mind compared to 10% of Turek's backers.

Historically, Iowa has leaned Republican in recent Senate elections, with no Democrat elected to the Senate in 18 years. The state has not elected a Democratic governor in 20 years. In the current gubernatorial race, Democrat Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn by a 53-44% margin among likely voters.

The Fox News poll surveyed 1,204 Iowa registered voters between September 24-28, 2026. The margin of sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The survey included live interviews on landlines and cellphones, as well as an online component.