Internal GOP Poll Shows Tight Race for New York Governor

An internal Republican poll claims New York Governor Kathy Hochul is leading her challenger, Republican Bruce Blakeman, by just 4.4 points in the state's gubernatorial race. The survey, conducted by On Message Inc. for Republican attorney general candidate Saritha Komatireddy's campaign, found Hochul with 50.3% support compared to Blakeman's 45.9%.

The same poll indicated that Democratic Attorney General Letitia James leads Komatireddy with 50.7% to 44.7%.

According to the poll of 1,000 likely New York voters, Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, holds a lead in the Buffalo region, with 56% to Hochul's 42%. Blakeman also led in the Albany region, 52% to 44%, and in other rural parts of the state, 62% to 33%.

Hochul's strongest performance in the poll was in the New York City media market, which includes Long Island and surrounding suburbs, where she led Blakeman 54.2% to 41.9%. She also held slight leads in the Rochester and Syracuse regions, at 50% to 46% and 49.1% to 47.1%, respectively.

A campaign strategist noted that the race is competitive and that "anything can happen." This sentiment echoes observations from four years prior, when Hochul won her previous election by a narrower margin than anticipated.

The findings from the internal GOP poll align with Blakeman's own campaign polling from the previous month, which also showed him trailing by 4 points. Another poll, released the week prior by Pollfinity, similarly indicated Hochul with a slim 4-point advantage.

However, these results contrast with the average of four recent surveys from independent pollsters compiled by Real Clear Politics. This average shows Hochul with a more substantial lead of 12.8 points over Blakeman, with individual polls ranging from a 9-point lead in a Siena University poll to a 19-point lead in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted within the last month. The Quinnipiac poll suggested a higher voter turnout in New York City.