Iceland has voted against joining the European Union, a decision that signals a rejection of closer ties with the 27-member bloc and deals a blow to its expansion ambitions. Early results showed the "No" camp with 52.5% of the vote, with only a few ballots remaining to be counted.
Despite government claims that accession was a "now or never" opportunity to safeguard against trade wars and Arctic rivalry, the public favored maintaining national sovereignty. Key points of contention included Iceland's exclusive control over its fishing waters and broader concerns about national independence. The recent war in Ukraine and discussions surrounding former President Donald Trump's interest in neighboring Greenland, a nation he has on occasion confused with Iceland, also played a role in the public discourse.
While the EU had expressed keenness to welcome Iceland, viewing it as a wealthy member that could strategically strengthen the bloc, particularly in the Arctic, compromise on sensitive issues like fishing access was on the table. EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos had indicated a willingness to find "creative solutions" for Iceland's specific agricultural and fisheries concerns. However, the fisheries sector, with 90% of companies opposing EU membership, remained a significant hurdle.
The possibility of a US push to acquire Greenland, coupled with Trump's past confusion of the two nations, raised concerns about Iceland's sovereignty and the future of its 1951 defense treaty with the United States. This unpredictability was cited as a factor influencing the vote.
Iceland already participates in the EU's Single Market through the European Economic Area, ensuring freedom of movement. Proponents of EU membership had argued that it would stabilize interest rates and enhance security. Conversely, opponents emphasized the importance of maintaining independence.
Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir stated that a "No" vote would definitively end speculation about EU membership. Iceland first applied for EU membership in 2009 following a financial crisis, but accession talks were halted by a subsequent Eurosceptic government in 2013.
The referendum, while non-binding, is expected to be respected by Frostadottir's coalition government. The result means Iceland will remain outside the EU until at least 2028. The country's existing arrangements within the European Economic Area and the Schengen zone will remain unchanged.
