The International Criminal Court (ICC) is poised for a pivotal secret vote on Friday among its member nations to determine whether to permanently remove Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan. The decision comes amid a protracted scandal involving allegations of sexual misconduct with a female aide, which Khan has consistently denied.

The controversy has persisted for over two years, creating divisions among human rights advocates, court staff, and member states at a time when the ICC faces significant external pressures, including opposition from the United States aimed at undermining the tribunal. The U.S. has previously sanctioned ICC staff, including Khan.

In June, Khan was formally suspended from his duties following a report by the ICC's oversight body's executive committee, which found he had committed "serious misconduct." Documents obtained by the Associated Press indicate Khan engaged in a sexual relationship with the woman and allegedly attempted to hinder her pursuit of the allegations, findings he disputes.

"There has been splintering over how the court has handled this," Lucy Gaynor, a historian of international criminal tribunals at the University of Amsterdam, told the Associated Press. Support groups for the court's work have presented diverging viewpoints. A group of Palestinian organizations has publicly criticized the executive committee's actions as "unwarranted political interference" and lacking "independence, impartiality or legal expertise."

Conversely, the International Federation for Human Rights, Redress, and Women’s Initiatives for Gender Justice, among others, stated in June that the alleged victim had been "publicly questioned, instrumentalized, and too readily dismissed as part of a political agenda."

Within the prosecutor’s office, staff members have also expressed unease about the future. A group of employees conveyed serious concerns to the oversight body regarding Khan's potential return, asserting that his "leadership has been materially diminished."

Prominent international figures have weighed in on the allegations. Former EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell suggested in an opinion piece that the accusations were part of a coordinated effort against the court, while Kenneth Roth, former executive director of Human Rights Watch, argued that Khan lacks the "moral authority and credibility to continue serving as prosecutor."

Khan has publicly denied the allegations, suggesting they are a conspiracy against him due to his investigation into Israeli officials. The female staffer involved has also strongly refuted this narrative, and a United Nations investigation report seen by the AP indicated that "multiple credible witnesses dismissed the notion that she was a spy."

The vote will take place during a special session of the Assembly of States Parties, the court's oversight body comprising 125 nations, convened in New York. A simple majority will be required to pass a resolution for his removal.

The Netherlands, the court's host country, and France are among the nations that have publicly declared their intention to vote for Khan's removal. The Dutch Foreign Minister indicated that there appears to be sufficient support for the recommendation of the ASP Office. The outcome of the secret ballot, however, remains uncertain.

Regardless of the vote's outcome, the ICC is bracing for continued challenges. The organization has been a target of criticism from the U.S. administration, which views the tribunal as a threat to its sovereignty, and has previously imposed sanctions on key ICC personnel. Researchers like Iva Vukusic of Utrecht University anticipate that the court will emerge from this period "bruised and battered and wounded and less able to face the greater threats."