The extent to which the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will be granted access to Iran's nuclear sites, particularly those previously blocked from inspection, is emerging as a critical determinant in the success of the U.S.-Iran nuclear accord.
Nuclear weapons experts express skepticism about Iran's willingness to cooperate fully with IAEA inspectors, citing decades of non-compliance. David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, stated that Iran's history of delaying and obfuscating has rendered previous inspection efforts "a pointless exercise." He emphasized that Iran's engagement with the IAEA will be a key indicator of the meaningfulness of current negotiations. "The way Iran treats the IAEA will tell us if the negotiations are meaningful," Albright said.
This skepticism is fueled by conflicting reports regarding inspection access. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman denied reports that the country had invited IAEA inspectors to visit its nuclear facilities. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated via X that there was "no plan for access to the facilities that were attacked or to the nuclear materials." He also denied a meeting between IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi and Iranian officials in Switzerland.
Conversely, IAEA Director Grossi told reporters in Japan that an agreement was reached allowing the agency to supervise and monitor the nuclear aspects of Iran's program. He noted that a Memorandum of Understanding was signed by President Trump and Iran's President Pezeshkian, which "expressly indicates that the nuclear part will be supervised, monitored, by the IAEA." Grossi indicated that initial conversations about inspections have begun and expressed hope for inspectors to visit soon.
President Trump, on Truth Social, asserted that "Iran has fully and completely agreed to highest level Nuclear inspections long into the future (Infinity!!!)," claiming this would ensure "Nuclear Honesty." He added that without this agreement, "there would be no further negotiations."
Vice President JD Vance echoed this sentiment, calling the agreement for IAEA inspectors to return to Iran a "major milestone" and the first step toward denuclearization. "And that's exactly what we wanted to do. That's exactly what we asked to happen," Vance said.
Experts like Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), stressed the need for more robust inspection powers in any new agreement. Brodsky argued that Iran should be compelled to disclose information not only at declared nuclear sites, especially those damaged, but also at universities, military bases, and other organizations involved in dual-use research applicable to nuclear weapon development. Brodsky noted that the original 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) lacked such comprehensive inspection powers, which he identified as a weakness.
Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the JCPOA in 2018, describing it as a "horrible one-sided deal." Albright, a critic of the JCPOA, warned against repeating the Obama-era deal's concessions, particularly regarding Iran's lack of cooperation.
The IAEA has declined to provide specific details on how this round of inspections would differ from past efforts, whether inspectors would have access to all suspected sites, or if they would focus on locations like the Pickaxe Mountain facility. Israel has identified over ten sites where Iran is suspected of nuclear weapons activity, but it remains unclear if the IAEA will demand access to these locations. Brodsky pointed out that Iran's denial of inspections at damaged nuclear facilities since June 2025 constitutes a violation of its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.