Category 3 Hurricane Lowell is tracking toward Hawaii, with heavy rain already causing flash flooding on Oahu and significant surf impacting the state's southern shores. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Kauai County and parts of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, a chain of islands and atolls northwest of Hawaii's main islands.
As of Sunday night Hawaii time, Lowell maintained maximum sustained winds of 115 mph. The storm was located 455 miles southwest of Lihue and moving north-northeast at 10 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasters anticipate Lowell will bring more heavy rain, flash flooding, gusty winds, and damaging surf across the entire state. The hurricane is expected to make its closest approach to the islands late Monday into early Tuesday.
Hawaii Governor Josh Green declared a state of emergency last Thursday in anticipation of the storm. Outer bands of Hurricane Lowell began drenching Kauai and Oahu on Sunday night. On Sunday afternoon, rainfall from the storm's outer bands had already caused flash flooding along the Kamehameha Highway north of Waikane on Oahu.
Lowell previously peaked as a Category 5 storm last Wednesday with winds up to 160 mph, subsequently weakening to Category 3 status by Thursday and Friday. Current computer models suggest the hurricane's center will pass to the west of Hawaii, approximately 100 to 150 miles west-southwest of Kauai during its closest approach. This path is influenced by an upper-level trough north of the Hawaiian Islands.
Despite predictions of an offshore passage, Lowell's extensive wind field is expected to cause significant impacts on the western Hawaiian Islands. Tropical-force wind gusts of up to 30 to 40 mph and heavy rainfall are anticipated to begin affecting Oahu on Monday afternoon. Rough surf and waves as high as 20 feet are possible along the south and west-facing coastal areas of Kauai and Oahu, contributing to a coastal flood threat.
The storm is projected to accelerate northward and begin weakening by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to decrease by Tuesday evening, with a corresponding reduction in rough surf. Nevertheless, a flood threat will persist, with 5 to 8 inches of rain expected across parts of the state, and localized amounts potentially reaching a foot.