Hurricane Fausto is projected to make a rare direct hit on Hawaii, with current storm tracks indicating a landfall on Maui, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, and Oʻahu by next week. The Category 2 storm, currently in the eastern Pacific Ocean, is expected to pass just north of the Big Island as a tropical storm on Tuesday, July 28, according to new spaghetti models.
The National Hurricane Center has warned of increasing impacts from wind and rainfall as Fausto approaches the Hawaiian Islands. While meteorologists state it is too early to determine the storm's exact strength at landfall or the precise islands in danger, the forecast indicates a significant weather event for the state. Fausto is currently experiencing sustained winds of over 100 mph.
The islands in the projected path are home to the majority of Hawaii's population and are currently in the peak of the summer travel season, with approximately 250,000 tourists visiting daily from June to mid-August. The last Pacific cyclone to make a direct impact on Hawaii was Hurricane Olivia in September 2018, which weakened to a tropical storm before reaching the islands.
Forecasters with AccuWeather predict Fausto may strengthen further before losing power in the cooler waters of the Central Pacific. Even if the storm passes north of the islands, there is a high probability of rough surf and dangerous rip currents along beaches facing east and north, particularly on Maui, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, and Oʻahu. AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva noted that gusty winds and localized heavy showers are also possible depending on the storm's precise track.
Fausto is the sixth named storm of the Pacific hurricane season this year. Meteorologists have warned that the 2026 season could be particularly active due to a developing 'super' El Niño, which tends to warm Pacific surface temperatures and influence weather patterns globally. AccuWeather forecasts between 17 to 22 named storms in the Pacific this year, with nine to 13 expected to become hurricanes and up to eight reaching major hurricane status. DaSilva previously cautioned in May that Hawaii should prepare for an increased risk of tropical impacts this year, with projections suggesting one to two direct hits on the state.
The El Niño phenomenon can also fuel storms, potentially leading to an increase in major storms threatening areas like California. Warm ocean waters can help storms strengthen faster, last longer, and potentially move farther north.
