If Democrats secure majorities in Congress, they could leverage legislative, investigative, and confirmation powers to shape policy and scrutinize the Trump administration, though significant obstacles remain. Experts suggest a multi-pronged approach focusing on "must-pass" bills, bipartisan cooperation, and laying groundwork for future agendas, alongside creative investigative tactics and a tighter grip on judicial and administrative appointments.
Legislative Strategies
Democrats face the reality that any legislation they pass will likely need to overcome a Senate filibuster and a presidential veto. Their legislative strategy could focus on three main avenues:
One approach involves confronting the executive branch through "must-pass" bills, such as government funding or the debt ceiling. Democrats could attach policy demands to these critical pieces of legislation. However, experts express skepticism about pushing too hard on the debt ceiling due to its potentially catastrophic consequences. A fight over government funding, however, might be more feasible, with Democrats potentially demanding concessions on issues like healthcare or immigration enforcement, similar to past tactics.
A second strategy centers on bipartisanship. Despite intense partisan battles, Congress has a history of passing bipartisan legislation on various issues, including COVID-19 relief, infrastructure, and semiconductors. Democrats could seek Republican support on specific measures or attach riders to appropriations bills to block controversial administration actions. They might also leverage public pressure on issues that divide the Republican party, forcing votes on topics such as tariffs or the war in Iran.
The third legislative path involves long-term planning. Democrats could use the current Congress to craft detailed proposals for future agendas, anticipating a potential Democratic presidency in 2029. This groundwork could allow for faster legislative action if the party gains more power, mirroring how current administrations have drawn from ideas developed in prior terms.
Investigative Powers
If Democrats gain control of either chamber, they will possess subpoena power, a crucial tool for investigating the Trump administration. Potential targets for investigation include donors to White House construction projects, investors in Trump family businesses, private companies receiving federal contracts, lobbyists involved in securing pardons, and law firms that struck deals with the administration. These investigations aim to uncover facts, potentially spur criminal inquiries, and draw public attention to alleged wrongdoings.
However, the Trump administration is expected to resist subpoenas, leading to protracted legal battles. To circumvent potential stonewalling, Democrats might focus subpoenas on non-government entities. Creative tactics, such as invoking "inherent contempt" to detain or fine noncompliant officials, are also possibilities, though they carry constitutional risks and have not been used since 1934. Experts caution that simply litigating defiance could prove ineffective, urging a more innovative approach.
Confirmation Process
Winning the Senate would give Democrats significant leverage over Trump's nominations for judges and administration officials. They would likely scrutinize controversial nominees more rigorously, potentially blocking many appointments. This could lead to an increase in "acting" officials, though legal limits exist on such appointments. For judicial nominees, especially at the Supreme Court level, Democrats could follow the Republican precedent of refusing to consider nominees if a vacancy arises, potentially preserving a balance of power for a future administration.
Political Stakes
The midterm election outcome will also influence the political landscape for Trump's remaining term. A strong Democratic showing could weaken his standing and lead to internal party recriminations. Conversely, a Republican victory in both chambers could embolden Trump and his agenda, potentially leading to more aggressive policy pursuits with less congressional opposition. The results will shape whether Trump is perceived as constrained or empowered in his final two years in office.