Iran-backed Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea's Bab el-Mandeb Strait could prompt a significant shift in U.S. strategy in Africa, with analysts suggesting closer ties with Somaliland. The U.S. currently operates a large military base in Djibouti, but its reliability as an ally is being questioned amid China's expanding influence there.
Somaliland, which declared independence from war-torn Somalia in 1991, is positioned as a stable, pro-U.S. outpost offering access to a deep-sea port and one of Africa's longest runways. This strategic location is seen as increasingly valuable as Houthi threats disrupt a vital chokepoint for global trade and oil exports.
"The Houthis could compel a different U.S. strategy in Africa," said retired Major General Ken Ekman, former West Africa Coordination Element Lead for the Department of War. He noted that Houthi actions create a second front in the Middle East conflict, potentially stretching U.S. assets and testing military capabilities.
Historically, U.S. Africa strategy has focused on counterterrorism missions against groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS. However, the escalating Red Sea tensions may necessitate a reorientation of priorities to ensure freedom of navigation, with Somaliland's proximity being a key advantage over Djibouti and Middle Eastern partners. "Orienting a Horn of Africa strategy against the Houthis would place a premium on freedom of navigation," Ekman added.
U.S. Air Force Gen. Dagvin Anderson, commander of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), has expressed concerns about Somalia's ability to counter Islamist groups like al-Shabab, hinting at a potential reduction in U.S. military support if Somalia does not take a stronger lead. "If we can’t see that in, the political instability and political infighting continues, then it’s going to be very hard for us to continue to stay engaged," Anderson stated.
While the U.S. officially aligns with Somalia, there are indications of increased engagement with Somaliland. General Anderson recently visited the port city of Berbera in Somaliland to assess its security environment and operational capacity. Additionally, a Somaliland delegation, including its defense minister, reportedly met with AFRICOM leadership in Stuttgart, Germany, to discuss Red Sea security.
Bashir Goth, Somaliland's Representative to the United States, emphasized that Somaliland is a reliable partner, possessing the necessary geography, stability, and willingness to cooperate with Washington on Red Sea security. "Somaliland is that partner and our defense officials have been in active dialogue with AFRICOM on Red Sea security," Goth said.
Despite these developments, the U.S. State Department maintains that it works with Somali and international partners to address terrorist threats in Somalia when appropriate for U.S. national security interests. Regarding the Red Sea, the U.S. is not publicly part of the maritime defense coalition established by Saudi Arabia and 13 other nations to combat Houthi threats, though it asserts its commitment to Saudi security. The U.S. has expressed displeasure with the Somali government's corruption and internal conflicts, but a full recognition of Somaliland's independence could create significant diplomatic challenges with Somalia.