Home Sellers Outnumber Buyers By Record 63% Nationwide
A widening gap between sellers and buyers, driven by high costs and economic uncertainty, gives house hunters more leverage in most of the country.
America’s housing market is increasingly shifting in favor of buyers, with a record 62.6% more home sellers than buyers nationwide in September, according to a Redfin report. This marks the largest gap since 2013, when the market was recovering from the Great Recession.
The imbalance has grown for four consecutive months, up from 56.9% in August, as elevated housing costs and economic uncertainty deter potential buyers. In September, the number of people actively looking to buy a home fell 2.4% from the previous month to 928,892, the lowest level on record. Concurrently, the number of sellers rose to 1.51 million, the highest since March 2020.
"This is a buyer’s market born out of caution, not strength," said Redfin senior economist Asad Khan. "Buyers have tremendous negotiating power in most of the country because so many other would-be buyers have been priced out of the market, or scared off by economic uncertainty."
This shift is particularly evident in Sun Belt markets, where increased homebuilding has boosted inventory even as demand has softened. Out of 50 major metropolitan areas studied, 41 were classified as buyer's markets, the highest number in Redfin's records. Miami led this trend, with 158.9% more sellers than buyers, followed by Nashville and Houston. Tampa saw its seller surplus increase to 103.7% from 82.2% in August.
Florida's housing market is experiencing mounting pressure from rising home insurance premiums, increasing HOA fees, and a surge in new listings. This has created more options for buyers, forcing sellers to compete for a smaller pool of house hunters.
Khan noted that while buyer demand often causes seller activity to drop, maintaining the market balance, this situation is different. "In every single metro where the number of buyers fell from the month before, the gap between sellers and buyers increased, causing the market to tilt further in buyers’ favor. That’s because sellers didn’t pull back nearly as fast, or pull back at all."
However, some areas continue to buck the national trend. Nassau County on Long Island, New York, was identified as the nation's strongest seller's market, with 28.6% fewer sellers than buyers in September. Redfin estimated 11,120 prospective buyers and 7,935 sellers in the county, highlighting its tight housing supply.
Other areas that remained seller's markets include Newark, New Jersey (18.5% fewer sellers than buyers), Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, Milwaukee, and San Francisco. The resilience of the New York metropolitan area's market is attributed to years of limited construction and consistent demand near a major employment center. San Francisco's market has been bolstered by the artificial intelligence boom, which has generated wealth and intensified buyer competition.
The divergence is also reflected in home prices. In August, sale prices in the five seller's markets rose an average of 6.4% year-over-year, compared to just a 1% increase nationwide across buyer's markets.