New York Governor Kathy Hochul holds a 10-point lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman, with 49% of likely voters supporting the incumbent to Blakeman's 39%, according to a Siena College poll released in early August. This finding places Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, in a stronger position than Republican candidate Lee Zeldin was at a similar stage in the 2022 election.

In August 2022, Hochul led Zeldin by 14 points, 53% to 39%. Hochul ultimately won that election by a narrow six-point margin, 53% to 47%. The current Siena poll indicates the race is already competitive with less than three months remaining until Election Day on November 3.

Hochul's lead is narrower than those held by other Democratic incumbents in statewide races. Two-term Attorney General Letitia James leads her Republican challenger by 18 points, and State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli leads his opponent by 23 points.

The Siena poll suggests Hochul's support is stronger among women and Black voters, with a 19-point lead over Blakeman among women and a significant deficit among Black voters. Blakeman, who is Jewish, shows stronger support among Catholic voters and garners 42% of the Jewish vote.

Geographically, Hochul maintains a substantial 45-point lead in New York City, while Blakeman leads by 8 points in the suburbs. The vote is split upstate between the two candidates.

On key issues, Hochul is perceived to be stronger on affordable housing, with 51% of likely voters believing she would do a better job compared to 35% for Blakeman. For making prices more affordable, 48% favor Hochul and 41% favor Blakeman. Voters are closely divided on public safety, with 47% believing Hochul would perform better and 44% favoring Blakeman.

Other polls conducted by Republican-leaning groups suggest an even closer race. A poll for the pro-Blakeman "Strong and Safe" Super PAC found Hochul leading by only 4 points, 47% to 43%. Another survey by the conservative-leaning "Coalition to Protect Nassau Taxpayers" showed Hochul with a 6-point lead, 47% to 41%.

The Siena College survey interviewed 811 likely voters between August 3 and August 6, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.