Hochul Leads Blakeman by 14 Points in New York Governor's Race, Poll Finds

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul holds a 14-point lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman in the upcoming gubernatorial election, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday. The survey indicates 55% of likely voters support Hochul, while 41% back Blakeman.

This margin represents a tighter race than Hochul faced in her 2022 re-election bid, where a Quinnipiac poll from October of that year showed her leading then-GOP nominee Lee Zeldin by 4 points. "Hochul is in a better position than she was four years ago when she faced Lee Zeldin," said Quinnipiac pollster Mary Snow.

The latest poll shows Hochul, a Democrat seeking her second four-year term, with 94% support among her party's voters. Blakeman, the current Nassau County executive and a Republican, has secured 95% support from GOP voters in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two-to-one.

Independents appear to favor Blakeman, with 51% of registered independent voters backing him compared to 44% for Hochul. This represents a gain for Blakeman since September, when Quinnipiac reported Hochul leading by 19 points (58% to 39%).

Hochul is performing significantly stronger in New York City than in the previous election cycle. In October 2022, 59% of New York City voters supported Hochul, but in the latest poll, 70% of city voters back her, with 24% supporting Blakeman. Upstate, however, Blakeman leads Hochul 52% to 46%. In the downstate suburbs, the candidates are nearly tied, with 48% for Blakeman and 47% for Hochul.

A notable gender gap also favors the incumbent governor, with 60% of women voters supporting Hochul and 35% supporting Blakeman. Men are nearly evenly split, with 49% for Hochul and 48% for Blakeman.

Neither candidate has achieved high favorability ratings. Forty-five percent of voters view Hochul favorably, while 46% view her unfavorably. Blakeman's favorability stands at 36%, with 40% unfavorable, and 23% of voters undecided or unfamiliar with him.

Financially, Hochul and the Democratic party hold a substantial advantage heading into the final weeks of the campaign. Hochul's campaign and the state Democratic Party collectively have $22 million in cash on hand, significantly more than Blakeman's campaign and the New York GOP.

Early voting is scheduled to begin Saturday and conclude November 1, with Election Day on November 3. Voters identified the cost of living (22%) and the economy (19%) as the top issues, followed by immigration (13%). Hochul garnered support from over 70% of voters prioritizing economic concerns, while Blakeman was favored by over 70% of those prioritizing immigration.

The poll surveyed 1,167 likely voters between October 15th and 19th, with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.