Hochul Holds 14-Point Lead Over Blakeman in Final Gubernatorial Poll

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is leading Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman by 14 points in the final pre-election Siena University poll, a five-point increase since the previous survey last month.

According to the poll released Wednesday, Hochul holds 54% support among likely voters compared to Blakeman's 40%. In September, Hochul led by nine points, 50% to 41%.

"Heading into the final stretch, Hochul has a 14-point lead, with Blakeman quickly running out of time to close a gap that is growing rather than narrowing," Siena pollster Steven Greenberg stated.

The poll also indicates incumbent Letitia James leads Republican Saritha Komatireddy 54% to 39% in the race for state attorney general. In the race for state comptroller, Democratic incumbent Tom DiNapoli has 59% support over Republican Joseph Hernandez's 32%.

Registered independents, a key demographic, favor Hochul and James over their Republican opponents by 10 and 11 points, respectively. Blakeman had held a 5-point lead among independents last month.

In the 2022 gubernatorial election, Hochul defeated Republican Lee Zeldin by a narrower six-point margin. Historically, Republican candidates in New York must secure significant support upstate and in the suburbs to offset the Democratic stronghold in New York City and win statewide races, according to Greenberg.

"And here’s the bottom line: for Republicans to win statewide, they must win convincingly upstate and in the downstate suburbs to offset the Democratic tsunami that is New York City, and they must win independents by a significant margin to offset Democrats’ two-to-one enrollment advantage," Greenberg explained. "But with only a week to go, Blakeman and Hochul are running virtually evenly upstate and in the downstate suburbs, while Hochul has an 11-point lead with independents."

A Quinnipiac University poll released the previous week showed Hochul with a 14-point lead, 55% to 41%, though that survey indicated Blakeman leading among independents 51% to 44%. Internal polls conducted by Blakeman and allied Republican groups have suggested a tighter single-digit race.

The Siena poll also revealed that 66% of voters believe the United States is heading in the wrong direction, compared to 49% who hold the same view about New York.

Hochul shows a significant gender gap, leading among women voters by 23 points (59% to 36%), while holding a 6-point lead among men (50% to 44%). She also leads among Latino voters by more than two-to-one and among Black voters 81% to 16%, while splitting support with Blakeman among white voters.

For the first time in five years of Siena polling, at least half of voters view Hochul favorably. The current poll shows 51% favorable views to 45% unfavorable, an increase from September's 48% favorable to 46% unfavorable. Her job approval rating stands at 51% approving and 46% disapproving, up from a split rating last month.

Blakeman's favorable rating is 39%, with 40% unfavorable.

A majority of respondents, 68%, believe Hochul will win the election, while 23% predict a Blakeman victory.

When asked about making New York more affordable, 30% of voters said Hochul, 27% said Blakeman, and 35% said neither candidate would achieve this.

Mayor Zohran Mamdani's endorsement of Hochul was viewed positively by 45% of voters, compared to 30% who saw it as negative. Conversely, 47% of voters considered President Trump's endorsement of Blakeman a negative for his campaign, while 29% viewed it as positive.

The Siena Poll surveyed 807 likely voters between Oct. 19-22, with 494 reached by phone and 313 online. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. Election Day is Nov. 3.