New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has widened her lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman to 14 points, according to a new poll from the Siena Research Institute. The survey, released Wednesday, shows Hochul with 54% support among likely New York voters compared to Blakeman's 40%.
This represents a five-point increase in Hochul's lead since September, when she held a 50% to 41% advantage. "Heading into the final stretch, Hochul has a 14-point lead, with Blakeman quickly running out of time to close a gap that is growing rather than narrowing," Siena pollster Steven Greenberg stated.
The poll also revealed that Blakeman is struggling to gain traction in areas typically crucial for Republican success in statewide elections. Support is nearly even between the candidates in upstate New York and the downstate suburbs, while Hochul leads independent voters by 11 points. Historically, Republicans need strong margins in these regions and among independents to offset the Democrats' significant voter registration advantage and dominance in New York City.
Despite Hochul's overall lead, the survey indicated voter uncertainty about whether either candidate would improve economic conditions. A plurality of voters, 35%, believe neither Hochul nor Blakeman would make life more affordable, while 30% opted for Hochul and 27% for Blakeman.
Hochul's favorability rating reached a new high in the poll, with 51% of likely voters viewing her favorably, a slight increase from 48% in September. Her job approval rating also stands at 51%. Blakeman, meanwhile, garnered a 39% favorable rating and a 40% unfavorable rating.
The poll highlighted a significant gender gap, with Hochul leading Blakeman by 23 points among women and six points among men. She also holds a substantial lead among Black voters, 81% to 16%, while support among White voters is closely divided.
A large majority of likely voters, 68%, anticipate Hochul will win the election, compared to 23% who predict a Blakeman victory. Notably, 40% of surveyed Republicans expect Hochul to win.
In other statewide races, Democratic Attorney General Letitia James leads Republican Saritha Komatireddy 54% to 39%, and Democratic state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli is ahead of Republican Joseph Hernandez 59% to 32%.
The Siena poll surveyed 807 likely New York voters between October 19-22 via telephone and text-to-web methods. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. Election Day is November 3.