The Healy-Rae political dynasty in Ireland is preparing to potentially expand its representation in the Dáil Éireann, even amidst publicised familial tensions and an anticipated redrawing of the Kerry constituency. Michael and Danny Healy-Rae, currently holding two of the five seats in the single Kerry constituency, are reportedly planning to leverage the electoral map changes to secure a third seat for their political operation.
Kerry is expected to be divided into two three-seat constituencies, North and South, to accommodate population growth. This redrawing could place the Healy-Rae brothers on a collision course, but sources close to the family suggest the clan is politically astute enough to turn the situation to their advantage. Plans are reportedly in motion for former minister Michael Healy-Rae to run alongside his son, Michael, a local councillor, in the southern Kerry stronghold. Simultaneously, either current TD Danny Healy-Rae or his daughter Maura, also a county councillor, would contest the other three-seat constituency.
This strategy aims to capture a third seat for the Independent grouping, despite the Healy-Raes being less formidable in North Kerry, an area where senior minister Norma Foley holds sway. Sources indicate that while relations between the brothers may be strained, they are unlikely to jeopardize their collective political enterprise. The redrawing of constituencies is seen by the family as an opportunity to regenerate with the younger generation entering the political arena.
Electoral analyst Adrian Kavanagh of Maynooth University predicts that the southern Kerry constituency could become a highly contested electoral battleground, potentially becoming a "constituency group of death." Currently, Kerry South is represented by the Healy-Rae brothers and Fianna Fáil's Michael Cahill. However, Fine Gael, Sinn Féin, other Independents, and the Social Democrats are expected to mount significant challenges in a redrawn South Kerry constituency.
The Healy-Rae family boasts a long-standing electoral success, having not lost an election in 50 years. Michael Healy-Rae secured the second-highest number of first-preference votes nationally in 2024. However, the dynasty has experienced close calls in the past when Kerry was previously divided. In 2002, Jackie Healy-Rae, the father of Michael and Danny, survived by just 202 votes, and in 2007, the margin was even narrower at 55 votes.
While the Healy-Raes aim to capitalize on the upcoming boundary changes, some government sources hope the reported internal tensions will lead to a loss, rather than a gain, of a seat. These sources suggest the brothers face a significant challenge to maintain their current two seats, and could even struggle to retain one. The palpable tension between the siblings has been compared to the Cold War, with reports of them being visibly separated even at social events. The family faces increased opposition in Kerry South from various parties and new independent candidates, alongside the established presence of Michael Cahill.