A plan for Hamas to disarm in exchange for Israel withdrawing from occupied areas of Gaza presents a rare potential diplomatic opening, but it is fraught with considerable challenges. The proposal hinges on Hamas relinquishing its weapons as Israel vacates the 70% of Gaza it currently occupies.
The dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, where over 2 million Palestinian civilians endure catastrophic conditions, underscores the complexity of any agreement. Homes and livelihoods have been destroyed, with estimates from the Hamas-run health ministry, considered reliable by the UN, indicating over 70,000 Palestinians killed during the war and more than 1,000 since the ceasefire. UNICEF reports that Israel killed more than 20,000 children since October 7, 2023.
Much of Gaza lies in ruins, a result of both Israeli military operations and a deliberate effort to destroy communities and infrastructure, with civilian demolition contractors reportedly employed to finalize the destruction. Many Palestinians believe Israel aims to make life unlivable to compel their departure, a sentiment echoed by leaders in Jordan and Egypt who suspect Israeli government officials are facilitating ethnic cleansing.
On the Israeli side, a significant portion of the population views Hamas as an ongoing threat that must be completely disarmed and stripped of power. The October 7, 2023, attacks, which killed nearly 1,200 people, approximately two-thirds civilians, and resulted in the taking of 251 hostages, fuel this sentiment, with many Israelis believing Hamas would repeat such actions if given the opportunity.
The diplomatic process is further complicated by domestic political pressures in both Israel and the United States. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a general election at the end of October and is trailing in opinion polls. His political future and a pending corruption trial could be impacted by his electoral performance. Domestically, he aims to avoid appearing weak on Hamas, while internationally, his focus is on Washington D.C. The upcoming U.S. midterm elections in November also loom large, with President Donald Trump seeking political victories. Trump may blame Netanyahu if he perceives him as hindering a desired outcome in Gaza.
Netanyahu, known for his tactical approach to challenges, is likely to attempt to balance domestic and international pressures until the Israeli election. His ability to manage relations with the U.S. administration is a key element of his political standing in Israel.