Hamas has announced its willingness to disarm, a development that could fundamentally alter the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. The move is part of the second phase of a comprehensive peace deal aimed at ending the ongoing conflict in Gaza and establishing a new Palestinian governing body.
President Trump described the potential disarmament as a "great breakthrough," noting that many had considered such an agreement impossible. If successful, this would mark the first time Hamas has formally committed to dismantling its military wing since it seized control of Gaza in 2007. The initial phase of the agreement, which began in October, involved a cease-fire between Hamas and Israel that has largely held but remains precarious.
The framework for the second phase outlines Hamas disarming under international supervision. However, significant challenges and uncertainties surround the implementation of this plan, raising five critical questions that could determine its ultimate success or failure.
Will Hamas Surrender All Weapons?
The primary question revolves around Hamas's commitment to surrendering its entire arsenal. The group is believed to possess thousands of assault rifles, rocket launchers, mortars, anti-tank weapons, explosives, and an extensive network of underground tunnels. Analysts are uncertain whether Hamas intends to surrender all its weaponry or only heavier arms, while allowing fighters to retain smaller firearms. For Israel, anything less than complete disarmament would likely be insufficient to address its security concerns. Israeli security analyst Yuval Davis noted Hamas's "documented history of breaking every commitment it has ever made," and pointed out that Hamas has conditioned the surrender of heavy weapons on the creation of a Palestinian state and the destruction of Israel—a condition Israel rejects.
How Will Disarmament Be Verified?
Verifying Hamas's disarmament presents an enormous logistical challenge. The proposal calls for international monitors to oversee the destruction or transfer of weapons, inspect military sites, and confirm the dismantling of Hamas's infrastructure. However, the dense network of underground tunnels, hidden weapon caches, and makeshift factories in Gaza makes a thorough verification process extremely difficult. Skeptics suggest that finding every weapon could prove nearly impossible. Some officials propose a phased approach, clearing weapons region by region. President Trump stated his Board of Peace would be responsible for taking custody of surrendered weapons, though previous announcements indicated a new Palestinian authority would assume this role.
Will Israel Trust the Process and Withdraw?
Israeli leaders have consistently stated that they will not withdraw their forces from Gaza until they are confident that Hamas can no longer pose a military threat. Any Israeli troop pullback is expected to be phased and tied to verified milestones in Hamas's disarmament process. If Israeli officials perceive Hamas as delaying or concealing weapons, the entire agreement could collapse, echoing past experiences where cease-fires allegedly allowed Hamas to regroup. President Trump indicated that Israel is supportive and understands its role in the arrangement, stating, "We do have an understanding with Israel."
Who Will Govern Gaza?
The question of who takes over governance in Gaza after Hamas steps down is another major hurdle. The proposed roadmap envisions a technocratic Palestinian administration, supported internationally, to manage reconstruction, security, and daily affairs. This body, named the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), has announced its readiness to assume responsibilities, focusing on restoring public administration, essential services, humanitarian conditions, and security. However, it remains uncertain whether this government can establish legitimate authority and prevent rival militant groups from filling any power vacuum. Davis emphasized that any transitional authority must be vetted, de-radicalized, and free of Hamas influence to avoid simply rebranding the existing infrastructure.
Can Hamas Exist Without its Military Wing?
For decades, Hamas's military wing has been central to its identity and power. Transitioning from an armed movement to a purely political actor would fundamentally transform the organization. There is a risk that hardline commanders or splinter factions might reject the disarmament deal, potentially leading to the emergence of new militant groups. Conversely, some experts suggest that successful disarmament could lead to Hamas dissolving entirely, which could have significant positive repercussions for regional stability. Emirati foreign policy expert Khaled Omar expressed hope that the agreement signifies the beginning of lasting peace, noting that "extremism is never a solution."