Traders on the prediction market Kalshi have dramatically increased their bets that Maine Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner will withdraw from the race, with odds soaring to 94%.
On Tuesday morning, the contract price for Platner dropping out before July 14 reached 94 cents, a sharp increase from the single digits reported previously. This surge reflects a growing sentiment among traders that Platner's campaign is in considerable jeopardy following recent allegations. The prediction market activity comes as Platner seeks to unseat incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins.
The market's sharp shift occurred after a rape allegation against Platner surfaced on Monday, prompting widespread calls from within the Democratic Party for him to suspend his campaign. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., who had previously endorsed Platner, rescinded her support. Warren stated that "With so much at stake, the best path forward is for Graham Platner to step aside as the Democratic nominee and address these serious allegations outside this Senate race."
Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., also withdrew his endorsement and urged Platner to exit the race. Sens. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., and Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., similarly rescinded their support on Monday, although Gallego did not explicitly call for Platner to suspend his campaign.
The mounting pressure on Platner's Senate bid began when Maine resident Jenny Racicot accused him of rape approximately five years prior. Racicot told Politico and CNN that Platner entered her home uninvited while intoxicated and proceeded to assault her despite her objections.
Platner has denied the allegation. In a statement, he indicated he was "taking the time to reflect on the best path forward" for his campaign. Platner, a Marine Corps veteran and oyster farmer, had emerged as a notable political figure with a populist message and outsider image.
In recent months, Platner's campaign has faced scrutiny over past conduct, including the resurfacing of sexually explicit messages, offensive social media posts, a tattoo associated with Nazi symbolism, and internal campaign staff turmoil. Despite these earlier controversies, his prospects for continuing in the race after his primary victory last month had remained high. However, the recent rape allegation appears to have significantly altered perceptions, at least on the Kalshi prediction market.