Government advisors are recommending substantial increases in flight prices, potentially adding hundreds of pounds to airfares by 2050, to help the UK meet its Net Zero emissions targets by reducing demand. The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has stated there is no viable path to expanding Heathrow Airport with a third runway without also decreasing emissions.
According to the CCC's analysis, a family holiday to Alicante, Spain, could see costs rise by approximately £150 by 2050. A return flight to New York could increase by as much as £400. These projected increases are intended to be funded by the aviation industry, with airlines expected to pass the costs onto consumers through ticket prices. This strategy aims to both reduce demand for flying and generate revenue to fund emission reduction solutions.
The CCC report asserts that the costs associated with reducing the aviation sector's emissions impact to Net Zero, whether through direct reductions or carbon removal offsets, should be borne by the industry. "We assume these costs will be passed on to consumers through ticket prices," the report states. "This in turn will both reduce demand growth and generate revenues, so that the same policy instrument both reduces the size of the problem and serves to fund solutions."
While passengers indicated a preference for the polluter-pays principle, with costs levied on airlines rather than through general taxation, there is also a sentiment that families should not be priced out of international travel. The CCC suggests this could potentially be addressed through measures like a frequent flyer tax, with exceptions made for domestic flights within the UK.
Nigel Topping, Chairman of the CCC, highlighted that emissions from aviation in the UK have doubled since 1990, even as overall climate pollution has been halved. He noted that Heathrow Airport is responsible for about half of the sector's emissions, and that by 2050, aviation emissions are projected to significantly outweigh those from other economic sectors. The expansion of Heathrow alone, he warned, could generate more emissions than any other sector.
"Ultimately, the polluter pays principle must apply," Topping stated. "If aviation is to grow, it must take responsibility for the emissions it creates. Expansion can only be compatible with the UK’s climate commitments if the sector is required to manage and pay for the full cost of reaching net zero."
However, the airline industry has called for an affordable transition to Net Zero, emphasizing ongoing investments in new aircraft, sustainable aviation fuel, and airspace upgrades. A spokesperson for the Department for Transport acknowledged that any expansion proposal would need to align with net zero targets. The department is investing in sustainable aviation fuel production and cleaner technologies, while also noting the economic benefits and job creation potential of airport expansion. The government stated it would carefully consider the CCC's advice alongside responses from the Heathrow expansion consultation.