GOP Shifts Senate Focus From Georgia, North Carolina Amid Fading Hopes
Republicans are increasingly concentrating on defending existing seats and playing defense elsewhere with five weeks remaining until the midterm elections.
Republicans, who once viewed Georgia and North Carolina as key states in their strategy to maintain control of the Senate, are now seeing their hopes of winning these two battlegrounds diminish. As a result, the party is shifting its focus and resources to defending seats in other states with five weeks remaining until the midterm elections.
While Republicans have not entirely abandoned Georgia and North Carolina, states President Donald Trump narrowly carried in 2024, they are reallocating greater resources to areas perceived as more competitive. The party is now investing heavily in defending Texas, a reliably Republican state, and Trump is scheduled to campaign for the Republican incumbent in Ohio, another state Trump won easily in 2024.
Within the party, some Republicans have become more vocal in their criticisms that Trump has missed opportunities to more comfortably fend off Democratic challenges this fall. Their concerns include the administration's handling of the war in Iran, its response to high fuel prices, and its late engagement in the midterm campaigns.
Democrats need to win several seats currently held by Republicans to regain the Senate majority. However, the GOP's current strategy appears to prioritize protecting seats they already hold over capturing Georgia, and they are signaling significant challenges in North Carolina.
"There is a Republican turnout problem due to the administration's failure to address the economic concerns of voters," said Paul Shoemaker, a North Carolina Republican strategist, referring to the state's U.S. Senate race.
Sources familiar with Senate leadership's internal discussions indicate that Republican Senate campaign leaders are looking beyond Georgia, where businessman Mike Collins is challenging first-term Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, to focus future spending on more competitive states. Ossoff has significantly outraised Collins, a trucking company executive, who has also struggled to expand his support beyond the state's Republican base.
Despite efforts by Senate Majority Leader John Thune to campaign and fundraise in Georgia, some local Republican party leaders have expressed pessimism. Tim Waters, Peach County Republican Party chair, stated, "He just doesn’t have what it takes to beat Ossoff." He added, "It’s hard enough trying to beat an incumbent, and you have the president of the same party in a tough midterm, right? I don’t think he’s got much of a shot."
Republicans had initially considered Georgia a potential firewall in the 2026 campaign, a buffer if Democrats secured victories in a critical number of states with Republican seats on the ballot. To reclaim the majority, Democrats must win a net of four seats.
However, Ossoff has already invested $57 million in advertising, with an additional $13 million reserved through the election, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. While outside groups supporting Collins have spent over $52 million, Collins' campaign has confirmed it has no immediate advertising time reserved.
In North Carolina, retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis suggested that while GOP candidate Michael Whatley's chances had not vanished, the party needed to reassess its spending strategy against Democratic former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper. "We've got to place our bets on the candidates that are the best run, either ahead or within striking distance," Tillis told reporters. "You've got to change your posture going into the last — we've got 36 days."
Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman, has received strong backing from Trump, who campaigned for him recently. However, enthusiasm for Trump appears to have waned even among some Republicans who previously voted for him, according to Shoemaker. Trump narrowly won North Carolina in 2024.
"The blue-collar, working-class voters that Donald Trump brought to the Republican Party is the one that's being most impacted by higher energy prices, and it's dampened their enthusiasm to turn out and vote," Shoemaker explained.
The Senate Leadership Fund, the Senate GOP's super PAC, has booked $19.5 million in advertising in North Carolina, having already spent $30.4 million. Michele Woodhouse, former Republican chair for North Carolina's 11th Congressional District and a Trump supporter, stated, "Do I think Roy Cooper is going to win the race? I absolutely do." She added, "Roy Cooper, for Republicans, is the worst Democrat candidate who could be running for this seat. He’s never lost in a statewide race. He’s very popular."
In Texas, a state where Democrats have not won a Senate election since 1988, the Senate Leadership Fund is allocating more spending than in any other state it initially targeted for defense. The group has recently poured over $100 million into advertising in Texas to support state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in what is considered a highly competitive race.
Trump endorsed Paxton over incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP primary. Some GOP campaign leaders viewed Paxton as a potential drain on Republican resources due to ongoing legal, ethical, and personal questions, including a felony indictment and impeachment charges, though he was never convicted.
Senate GOP leaders had anticipated that Trump's super PAC, MAGA Inc., would shoulder a significant portion of the advertising load after Paxton defeated Cornyn. However, neither the National Republican Senatorial Committee nor the Senate Leadership Fund initially included Texas in their midterm budgets.
As of Monday, MAGA Inc. has committed over $20 million to ads supporting Paxton this month, while the Senate Leadership Fund has spent $124 million.
If Democrats win North Carolina and Texas, they would then need to secure victories in just two more competitive Republican-held seats—in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Ohio—in addition to holding competitive Democratic-held seats in Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire, to capture the majority.
Trump is scheduled to visit Ohio to support Sen. Jon Husted in his challenge against Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown. The president plans to campaign with Husted in Vandalia.
Senate Republican campaign leaders have voiced concerns that rising gas prices, linked to the seven-month war with Iran, are among the issues negatively impacting candidates, issues they argue Trump has exacerbated. Trump, while campaigning with Whatley, described higher fuel prices as "a very inexpensive price to pay" for preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Despite current high prices, they remain below the nationwide record set in 2022.
This situation has prompted some candidates, such as Iowa's GOP Senate nominee Rep. Ashley Hinson, to speak out. "Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn't have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran," she stated last week. South Dakota Sen. Mike Rounds acknowledged the need to address fuel prices, stating, "We have to stay focused on the fact that we know that gas prices are too high, and diesel is way too high."