Republicans are projected to lose their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections, with control of Congress hanging in the balance in a handful of closely contested districts. President Donald Trump has expressed concerns that his voters may not turn out in sufficient numbers for Republican candidates if he is not on the ballot.
The GOP has held a majority in the House since Trump's return to power in January 2025, with a current advantage of 218 to 212 seats, though four vacancies exist. Democrats need to flip at least three seats to regain control.
Several key races are marked by significant controversies and tight competition:
In New Jersey's 7th District, incumbent Republican Tom Kean Jr. faces Democratic challenger Rebecca Bennett. Kean previously missed over 140 consecutive House votes, attributing his absence to depression. The Cook Political Report shifted this seat's rating from 'toss up' to 'lean Democrat' in late September.
Ohio's 7th District features Republican incumbent Max Miller, who is endorsed by Trump, against Democrat Brian Poindexter. Miller is facing domestic abuse allegations from his ex-wife, which he denies. Polling in this 'toss up' district showed Miller trailing by approximately 8 points in recent surveys.
Pennsylvania's 10th District is set for a rematch between Republican Scott Perry and Democrat Janelle Stelson. Perry narrowly won their previous contest in 2024. Perry, a member of the conservative Freedom Caucus, is facing a challenger in a district that has seen its rating shift to 'lean Democrat.' A recent poll found the candidates tied at 48 percent.
In Virginia's 2nd District, Republican Jen Kiggans is challenging former Representative Elaine Luria. Kiggans unseated Luria in 2022. This seat, home to a large veteran population, is rated 'lean Democrat.' A poll in early October showed Luria leading Kiggans by three points.
New York's 17th District sees Republican incumbent Mike Lawler facing veteran Cait Conley. Lawler has drawn scrutiny for his association with Max Miller and for past legal issues, including an admitted DWI arrest from his younger years. This race is rated a 'toss up' by the Cook Political Report.
Freshman Republican Tom Barrett of Michigan's 7th District is running against William Lawrence, a climate activist with a past felony charge for chaining himself to construction equipment during a protest, which was later expunged. This race is also a 'toss up,' with one mid-October poll showing Lawrence leading Barrett by eight points.
Iowa's 1st District incumbent, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks, faces Christina Bohannan, a lawyer and former State Representative. Miller-Meeks won her first federal race by a narrow margin of six votes. The seat was moved to 'lean Democrat' in early October.
Texas' 34th District features incumbent Democrat Vicente Gonzalez against Republican Eric Flores in a redrawn district that has trended Republican. Flores believes voters in this heavily Hispanic region do not share the Democratic Party's opposition to Trump's immigration policies. This seat is rated 'lean Democrat,' with a mid-October poll showing Gonzalez ahead by 7 points.
Nebraska's 2nd District has an open seat following Republican Don Bacon's decision not to seek re-election. Republican Brinker Harding is competing against Democrat Denise Powell. This seat was shifted to 'likely Democrat' in early October.
Incumbent Republican David Valadao of California's 22nd District, who voted to impeach Trump in 2021, faces educator and activist Randy Villegas. This seat is rated a 'toss-up.'