As the midterm elections loom, Republicans are facing growing doubts about their chances of winning Senate seats in Georgia and North Carolina, states that were once considered key targets. The party is now grappling with an expanding map of seats to defend and considering diverting resources from these states, which were won by former President Donald Trump in 2024, to more reliably Republican states where races have become unexpectedly competitive.
Trump's approval ratings have reached a record low of 32%, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, a significant drop from the 47% approval he held at the beginning of his second term. This decline coincides with the ongoing war in Iran and its economic consequences, which are impacting Republican candidates down the ballot. In Georgia, Republican Senate candidate Rep. Mike Collins, and in North Carolina, former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley, are facing particular challenges.
Initially considered top targets for both parties, Georgia and North Carolina now appear to be shifting in favor of Democrats. While Trump won both states in 2024, ABC News race ratings now indicate that Georgia's Senate race is likely to be won by the Democratic candidate, and North Carolina is leaning Democratic.
"Trump's numbers being sort of this never-ending limbo contest for how low they can go makes that all the harder for every Republican on the ballot," Doug Heye, a North Carolina GOP strategist and former communications director for the RNC, told ABC News. A prominent Georgia Republican, speaking anonymously, echoed this sentiment, stating, "I have never seen an environment this bad for Republicans in Georgia."
Shifting Investment Priorities
These concerns are leading some Republicans to advocate for redirecting financial investments away from Georgia and North Carolina. With a limited budget and numerous competitive races across states like Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, Maine, and Texas, the focus is shifting to where Republican resources can be most effective in maintaining or expanding their Senate majority. Republican Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina has publicly signaled that North Carolina may no longer be a priority investment, emphasizing the need to secure the majority by focusing on races in states like Maine, Alaska, and Ohio.
Veteran Republican strategist Karl Rove offered a stark assessment, stating, "We're not going to win either one" of the Senate races in Georgia and North Carolina.
Candidate Strength and Political Positioning
Compounding the challenges for Republicans are the strength of the Democratic candidates in these races. North Carolina's Democratic candidate, Roy Cooper, is a former two-term governor with an undefeated record in elections since 1986, having won governorships in 2016 and 2020, both years Trump won the state. In Georgia, incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff benefits from his current position and has engaged voters effectively on social media, though he has repeatedly denied speculation about a potential presidential bid.
Some Republican candidates in closely contested races are attempting to distance themselves from Trump. However, Collins and Whatley have largely maintained their alignment with the former president. Whatley, as Trump's chosen candidate for the North Carolina Senate seat, has defended the president's policies, including the war in Iran and the economy, despite polling indicating that voters in North Carolina prioritize inflation and affordability over crime.
Collins, who describes himself as a "MAGA warrior," has also embraced his base and support for Trump. This contrasts with the approach of Georgia Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who endorsed Collins' primary opponent, arguing for a candidate who could appeal to moderate voters to better challenge Ossoff.
Despite these challenges, both the Whatley and Collins campaigns assert they have viable paths to victory and will secure the necessary resources. A spokesperson for Whatley expressed confidence in their ability to reach North Carolina voters, while Collins' campaign pointed to fundraising events with Republican leadership as evidence of continued support. Michael Whatley is seen at a rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, and Donald Trump speaks at a press briefing in Washington, D.C.