GOP Challenger Narrows Gap in New York Governor's Race, Poll Finds

Republican gubernatorial nominee Bruce Blakeman has significantly narrowed the gap against incumbent Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, trailing by single digits with six weeks remaining before Election Day, according to a new Siena College poll. Hochul leads Blakeman 50% to 41% among likely voters in New York, a state where Democrats hold a two-to-one advantage in voter registration.

Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, had trailed Hochul by 10 points in a Siena survey conducted in August. His current deficit of nine points is within the poll's margin of error. This marks a tightening of the race compared to the 2022 gubernatorial election, when then-Republican nominee Lee Zeldin trailed Hochul by 17 points at a similar juncture but ultimately lost by six points.

The Siena poll, conducted September 11-17, surveyed 1,144 likely New York voters and has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for core questions. The results indicate Blakeman is performing stronger with Republicans than Hochul is with Democrats. Blakeman leads Hochul 88% to 8% among Republicans, while Hochul holds an 81% to 11% lead among Democrats.

Among independent voters, Blakeman holds a narrow 44% to 39% advantage over Hochul. Despite the closing gap, a majority of New York voters, approximately two-thirds, believe Hochul will win re-election, including 37% of Republicans.

Blakeman has expressed optimism about the poll numbers, stating, "All polls continue to show Kathy Hochul's downward spiral and me closing the gap as New Yorkers learn more about my plan to cut income taxes by historic margins and slash electric bills in half." However, support for former President Donald Trump, who endorsed Blakeman in February, appears to be a mixed factor. Half of likely voters, including 25% of Republicans, view Trump's endorsement as a negative for Blakeman's campaign.

In contrast, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani's endorsement of Hochul is seen as a positive by 50% of likely voters, with only 30% viewing it as a negative. Hochul, who became New York's first female governor in August 2021 following Andrew Cuomo's resignation, has seen her political standing improve over the past year and a half. The Hochul campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the Siena poll results.