Republicans are positioned to gain congressional seats in New York this November, according to an analysis by the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC). The NRCC suggests that gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman's strong performance in suburban and upstate New York against Democratic incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul could benefit GOP House candidates in swing districts.
"In New York, Republicans are in the strongest electoral position possible because while Kathy Hochul and Zohran Mamdani run the Empire State into the ground, Republicans are delivering," said NRCC Committee spokeswoman Maureen O’Toole. She cited falling taxes and increased safety, attributing these improvements to President Trump and Republicans.
However, the NRCC's analysis reportedly overlooks Donald Trump's low approval ratings within New York. A Siena College poll indicated that only 32% of New York voters view Trump favorably, with 63% holding an unfavorable opinion. In suburban areas where key House races are concentrated, Trump's favorability stands at 33%, while 60% view him unfavorably.
Jay Jacobs, chairman of the New York State Democratic Party, dismissed the GOP analysis as "fantasy," stating, "Donald Trump is the most unpopular president since Richard Nixon."
Despite this, the NRCC analysis highlighted specific local successes. It noted Blakeman's 11-percentage-point victory in his Nassau County executive re-election bid last year, winning 50.3% of the vote. Republicans also reportedly swept all countywide offices in Nassau County in 2025. Within the 3rd Congressional District, currently held by Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi, Blakeman carried Suozzi's hometown of Glen Cove.
In the 4th Congressional District, represented by first-term Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen, Republicans secured all seats on the Long Beach City Council last year, leading to GOP control of the town council for the first time in 54 years. The NRCC analysis indicates that Trump won the 3rd House District by 4.3 percentage points over Kamala Harris in 2024 and lost the 4th District by only half a percentage point.
Rep. Suozzi narrowly won re-election in the 3rd Congressional District, which includes parts of Queens and Long Island, by 3 percentage points against former GOP Assemblyman Michael LiPetri two years ago. LiPetri is the Republican nominee for a rematch this year. The Cook Political Report, however, rates both the 3rd and 4th Congressional Districts as "leans Democrat."
Gillen's opponent is Jeanine Driscoll, nominated by the Nassau GOP after Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, now the inspector general in the U.S. Labor Department, declined to run. The NRCC analysis pointed out that while Hochul won statewide by 6.4 percentage points in 2022, she lost to former Long Island Rep. Lee Zeldin by 8.5 points in District 3 and by 5.8 points in District 4.
In the Hudson Valley's 17th District, Republican Rep. Mike Lawler faces re-election against Army veteran Cait Conley. Lawler won his seat in 2022 by defeating ex-Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney and was re-elected by 6 percentage points in 2024. Hochul lost the 17th District to Zeldin by 3.2 percentage points in 2022.
Upstate, in the 19th Congressional District, Republican state Sen. Peter Oberacker is challenging first-term Democratic incumbent Josh Riley. The NRCC analysis suggests Oberacker has a chance to win, as his state Senate district comprises 37% of New York's 19th Congressional District.
Gov. Hochul is seeking a second term but faces an unfavorable rating from 44% of New York voters, though 43% view her favorably. The Siena poll shows Hochul leading Blakeman 52% to 32% in the gubernatorial race.
Jacobs criticized the GOP analysis for relying on past results rather than current conditions, stating, "Elections aren’t about years past but about the future in the now."