A recent study is exploring a novel theory that the widespread adoption of GLP-1 medications, such as Ozempic and Wegovy, could be contributing to the historic decline in violent crime observed across the United States in recent years. Criminologists are still working to identify all the factors behind this trend, but research from Rutgers University suggests a potential connection.
Sociology professor Daniel Semenza, a co-author of the study, explained that GLP-1 medications may affect brain regions involved in reward processing and self-regulation. "In simple terms, they may reduce how strongly people respond to certain rewards or urges," Semenza stated. "Our findings suggest that someone may still have impulsive tendencies, but those tendencies may be less likely to translate into violent behavior."
The study noted that research indicates these drugs can reduce alcohol consumption and cravings by influencing the brain's reward system. Semenza's comparative analysis found that common risk factors for violence, including impulsivity and alcohol use, were less pronounced in individuals currently taking GLP-1 medications compared to former users. "We found that alcohol use was associated with more violent behavior, but that relationship was weaker among current GLP-1 users compared to former users," he said.
With approximately 15% of the adult population having used a GLP-1 medication, tens of millions of Americans could potentially be experiencing these moderating effects. However, Semenza emphasized that his research does not establish a direct causal link between GLP-1s and a nationwide reduction in violent crime or a direct improvement in impulse control. Instead, the study highlights that impulsivity and alcohol use are well-established risk factors for violence. "We found that these risk factors were less strongly associated with violence among current GLP-1 users," Semenza added.
This potential connection could have broader implications for understanding violence prevention, should future research confirm a causative effect. Semenza cautioned that research into the long-term effects of these drugs is still in its early stages, and longitudinal studies are needed to fully understand what happens before, during, and after GLP-1 treatment.
The decline in violent crime is significant, with the murder rate reportedly falling to its lowest point since the mid-1950s. The U.S. violent crime rate dropped 9.7% in 2025, the largest annual decrease in recorded history, and has continued to fall. Criminologists also point to other contributing factors, such as a normalization following COVID-19 pandemic shifts, which saw a temporary increase in violent crime. Factors like decreased alcohol consumption, reduced illicit drug use, and fewer firearm purchases since 2020 and 2021 are also cited. Additionally, the disruption of community support systems during pandemic lockdowns and a demographic shift toward a smaller youth population, historically a group more often involved in violent crime, are considered. Law enforcement agencies are also increasingly employing AI tools and predictive analytics to manage crime hotspots.