A quarter-century after the September 11, 2001 attacks, the Global War on Terrorism has successfully achieved its primary objective: preventing another major attack on the U.S. homeland. This assessment comes from an analysis that credits the intelligence and homeland security systems established in the wake of 9/11, which remain effective and are expected to be further enhanced by artificial intelligence.
"We may not have known it at the time, but our willingness to wage long wars made it clear that the price of attacking America is not worth paying," the analysis states. The efforts have led to the elimination of top terrorist leaders responsible for the 9/11 plot, including Osama bin Laden and Ayman Al-Zawahiri, with fewer individuals stepping in to fill their roles. Relentless deterrence is cited as a key factor in thinning the ranks of jihadist groups like al Qaeda and the Islamic State, weakening their inclination and capacity to launch attacks against the United States.
Despite these successes, the analysis acknowledges lingering threats. The Muslim Brotherhood is identified as an ideological cornerstone of jihadism, operating globally and continuing to radicalize youth. The Trump administration has taken steps to counter this network, including an executive order directing the Treasury and State departments to sanction overseas branches of the organization. Penalties have been imposed on some branches, restricting their fundraising and business activities, but further action is needed. The analysis also calls on U.S. allies Qatar and Turkey to cease their support for the network.
Furthermore, Iran-backed terrorist networks remain a significant concern. Groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Shiite militias in Iraq, while weakened under pressure, continue to pose a threat to regional populations and U.S. forces. The analysis asserts that the fight against these groups and their state sponsor, Iran, is not over. The resilience of these groups, described as unwilling to surrender even when defeated and choosing martyrdom, presents a persistent challenge that has made clear victories elusive.
The ideology driving these groups, characterized as a hijacking of religion to rationalize violence, has been difficult for Western minds to fully comprehend. This lack of complete understanding may have hindered efforts to achieve decisive wins on the battlefields of Afghanistan and Iraq.
As the nation shifts its focus towards great power competition with China and potential conflicts involving Russia, the asymmetric war against jihadists continues to require attention from intelligence services and occasional military deployments. The analysis cautions against simplistic interpretations of history that might advocate for disengagement from such conflicts, emphasizing that U.S. safety over the past 25 years has been maintained by confronting enemies abroad rather than allowing them to attack on home soil. The author, Jonathan Schanzer, is identified as the executive director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former terrorism finance analyst at the U.S. Department of the Treasury.