Germany Warns of Escalating Russian 'Shadow War' Threat

Germany faces a heightened risk of violent conflict with Russia as Moscow escalates its undeclared "shadow war" against Berlin and its allies, according to Martin Jaeger, head of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND).

Jaeger informed lawmakers that Russia's hybrid warfare tactics have reached a "new, more dangerous character." He stated, "Germany is at risk of being drawn into a violent conflict with Russia," and added that "No other country currently poses such a direct, comprehensive, and concrete threat to Germany."

Among specific incidents, Jaeger pointed to an attempted drone attack at Leipzig airport in August, with Russian agents identified as prime suspects. Germany has consistently accused Russia of engaging in a hybrid campaign involving espionage, sabotage, and disruptive actions, allegations that Moscow has denied.

Germany has significantly increased its military spending to deter Russian aggression and is a major supporter of Ukraine in its ongoing conflict with Moscow. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently made an unannounced visit to Kyiv to pledge further military aid.

Jaeger explained that Germany has become a "major obstacle to Russia's projection of hegemonic power in Europe" and is consequently a target of Russian actions. While his agency has observed "no indication" of plans for a large-scale Russian military assault on a NATO member, he warned of potential "low-level Russian military activities, particularly in the Baltic states."

He emphasized the critical role of intelligence services in countering this "shadow war." A recent reform of Germany's intelligence agencies now permits them to conduct more aggressive covert operations beyond information gathering.

Sinan Selen, head of Germany's domestic intelligence agency (BfV), corroborated these concerns, noting that Russian operations extend beyond traditional espionage to include "sabotage and assassinations." Selen stated that Russia's defense industry and military infrastructure are primary targets, and Moscow "is already accepting the risk of potential civilian casualties" in its campaign against Germany.