Germans are voting in a critical regional election in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, with the far-right, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party on track for a significant victory.
Polling at over 40 percent for months, the AfD is aiming to secure its first-ever state government, though this outcome is not guaranteed. Polls opened at 8 a.m. local time and will close at 6 p.m., with initial projections expected shortly thereafter. Approximately 1.7 million voters are eligible to cast ballots in the state, which is currently governed by the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in coalition with two smaller parties.
The AfD's top candidate for Saxony-Anhalt, Ulrich Siegmund, a 35-year-old with a strong social media presence, has expressed confidence in achieving an absolute majority. He suggested that if other parties refuse to cooperate, the AfD might seek to govern alone. Such a scenario would mark a significant shift in German politics, a country historically sensitive to the rise of extremist parties due to its past.
A strong AfD performance could also increase pressure on CDU Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose party has been trailing the AfD in national polls. Political scientist Wolfgang Schroeder of Kassel University noted that an AfD win in Saxony-Anhalt would likely embolden critics of Merz and amplify calls for stronger leadership, though he does not anticipate Merz being ousted in the near future.
Siegmund has positioned the election as a potential turning point, aiming to spark a political revolution from the state that could propel the AfD to national prominence by 2029. The party's platform includes policies such as a "remigration and deportation offensive," a ban on LGBTQ pride flags in public schools, and an end to new wind farm development. The AfD has also appealed to a sense of nostalgia for East Germany and addressed lingering economic disparities with the western part of the country.
The prospect of an AfD-led state government has raised alarms among mainstream parties and minority groups. Opponents of the AfD organized a "festival of democracy" rally in Magdeburg the day before the election to protest the party's expected gains. Concerns have also been voiced by the German Economic Institute, which warned that the AfD's immigration policies could negatively impact the state's economy, which relies on foreign-born workers amid an aging and shrinking population. Additionally, some observers fear that an AfD-controlled state security apparatus could share sensitive information with Russia, a concern echoed by Thuringia state interior minister Georg Maier, who stated that the Kremlin views the AfD as a key tool for destabilizing Germany.
Recent polling indicates the AfD leading with 41 percent, followed by the CDU at 23 percent. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) has 8.5 percent, and the Greens have 6 percent. Two smaller parties failed to surpass the 5 percent threshold to enter the state parliament. An alternative governing scenario could see the CDU forming a minority government with support from the far-left Die Linke party, which garnered 11.5 percent in polls.
In the final days of campaigning, unsubstantiated claims of mail-in ballot fraud emerged on social media, which state authorities have denied. Germany's parliamentary speaker, Julia Kloeckner, dismissed these allegations, suggesting they aimed to undermine public trust in the electoral process.