Saxony-Anhalt is poised to become a pivotal battleground in Germany's political landscape as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party vies for power in a state election on September 6. Recent polls place the AfD at 42-43% in Saxony-Anhalt, a surge that could lead to an absolute majority, potentially breaking the "firewall" of coalition alliances that have previously excluded the party from governance.
Ulrich Siegmund, the lead candidate for the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt, presents a charismatic public image that appeals to voters concerned about issues like mass migration. His supporters view him and the AfD as potential saviors for Germany, with Siegmund stating, "We stand for freedom. We stand for once again standing up for our own country and our own people." However, to many other citizens and the federal government, Siegmund and his pro-Russian party represent a significant threat, evoking comparisons to the darkest periods of German history and raising alarms about national security.
Concerns are particularly acute regarding the AfD's potential to undermine German security and NATO defenses. If the party secures power in Saxony-Anhalt, a state strategically located near Berlin, it could theoretically block the transit of troops and weapons through the region in times of international conflict. Fears also exist that the party might misuse access to intelligence.
The AfD's growing influence is occurring despite its designation as an "extremist entity" by Germany's domestic intelligence agency, the Office for Protection of the Constitution. This designation followed a three-year inquiry and permits increased surveillance of the party, fueling calls for a potential ban.
This election comes 13 years after the AfD's inception as an anti-bailout party. Its popularity and radicalism escalated following the 2015 migration crisis, when Germany opened its borders to over a million migrants and refugees. During this period, some AfD figures began echoing historical sentiments, with one prominent leader referring to the Nazi era as a "speck of bird droppings" in German history. Siegmund himself was reportedly part of a meeting discussing a plan for mass deportations of asylum seekers and non-assimilated citizens.
Supporters like Jenny Guettler, 30, feel the AfD is the only party addressing immigration concerns. "People who are dangerous, who cannot afford to be here, they should go," she stated. Another supporter, Anna, an office worker, expressed feeling more threatened by left-wing and Green extremists than those on the right.
Critics, however, point to the party's historical revisionism and pro-Russian stance. The AfD advocates for lifting sanctions on Russia, restoring energy ties, and halting arms shipments to Ukraine, a move that would significantly impact Kyiv's defense efforts, as Germany is its largest weapons supplier. The party's platform in Saxony-Anhalt even includes restoring Russian-language lessons in schools. The party's deputy leader has publicly defended Russia's invasion of Ukraine and protested against Western values in Russia.
The federal government is reportedly discussing contingency plans to circumvent potential state-level obstruction by an AfD government, including overriding state jurisdiction in a crisis. Roderich Kiesewetter, an MP with the ruling Christian Democratic Union, noted that federal police could potentially assume responsibilities if an emergency crisis law is invoked.
The rise of the AfD in states like Saxony-Anhalt is partly attributed to the lingering effects of German reunification in 1990. The economic collapse of industries in former East Germany led to widespread disruption and a perception of neglect by the West. Saxony-Anhalt, which lost a quarter of its population post-reunification, is now the country's demographically oldest state with a significant gender imbalance among young adults. Political scientist Kerstin Volkl suggests this historical resentment fuels extremism, with data indicating strong support for dictatorship and the trivialization of Nazi-era crimes in the state.
Many residents express deep concern. Karen, 75, stated, "Weg, weg [Gone, gone]. They have Nazis in their ranks and that is not acceptable at all." Birgit, 55, a physiotherapist, voiced apprehension about the party's radicalism and potential impact on immigrants who have established lives in Germany. Leon Sokolov, a 20-year-old student with a Russian father, worries about increased hostility towards those with migration backgrounds and the AfD's potential national agenda to exit the EU.
While migration is a prominent concern for AfD supporters, a study by the State Agency for Political Education indicates that for all voters, it ranks fifth after schools, jobs, cost of living, and transport. Many voters seeking change are drawn to the AfD's promise of drastic societal shifts, a sentiment that experts compare to the conditions that led to the rise of extremism in the 1930s.
The upcoming election in Saxony-Anhalt could determine whether the AfD transitions from a significant opposition force to a governing party, a development that carries profound implications for Germany and its role in Europe.