The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has expanded its gains in recent state elections, securing first-place finishes that bring it closer to regional power than any far-right party since World War II. The results represent a significant setback for Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his mainstream conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the CDU experienced what Merz described as a "disaster," winning only 4.9% of the vote, its lowest result ever in a state election and below the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament. The AfD, however, declared itself "the strongest force and have reached the mainstream of the population."
Despite the AfD's electoral success, its path to governing remains uncertain. The party typically lacks an outright majority, necessitating support from other parties. However, mainstream political groups in Germany maintain a "firewall" against forming coalitions with the AfD.
The AfD's campaign in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania focused on a hard-line anti-immigration platform, advocating for more deportations and the establishment of a state border and deportation police force. The party also called for halting asylum seeker intake, ending further wind power development, lowering property-transfer taxes, and reducing the size of the state administration.
While some AfD state leaders expressed openness to coalition discussions, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, and Die Linke—all of which secured seats in the state parliament—have rejected cooperation with the AfD.
The SPD, led by state premier Manuela Schwesig, came in second. Schwesig positioned herself as a defense against an AfD-led government while also criticizing the federal government's policies. She attributed the shift of approximately 45,000 former SPD voters to the AfD to dissatisfaction with the federal government and growing opposition to Germany's financial and military support for Ukraine. The AfD's campaign promise to reopen the Nord Stream pipelines, damaged by explosions in September 2022, resonated with voters in the state.
The CDU has seen a broader decline in popularity, falling from 30% support in July 2025 to 21% in early September. The party also experienced a significant drop in Berlin's state election, securing 18.8% of the vote, a 9.4 percentage point decrease from 2023. The AfD also made substantial gains in Berlin, increasing its vote share from 9.1% in 2023 to 16.3%.
In Saxony-Anhalt's state election earlier this month, the CDU's vote share more than halved, dropping from 37.1% in 2021 to 17.2%. Conversely, the AfD more than doubled its support in the same election, reaching 43.8%. Nationally, the AfD leads opinion polls with nearly 30% support.
Mainstream parties continue to uphold their policy of refusing coalition or cooperation with the AfD. Some AfD branches, including the one in Saxony-Anhalt, are classified as right-wing extremist organizations by domestic intelligence, a designation the party contests.
Despite the electoral challenges, Merz has vowed to continue with his reform agenda, calling for "backbone, steadfastness, and patience." He stated that the proposed reforms are an "antidote to the authoritarian poison that is penetrating ever deeper into our society, driven by the allure of authoritarianism."