The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is currently experiencing a surge in popularity, coinciding with its national convention this weekend. The party is capitalizing on widespread discontent with the German government's efforts to reform the economy and is targeting significant gains in upcoming regional elections, particularly in eastern Germany.
AfD is holding its convention in Erfurt, where leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla are expected to have their terms extended. The party achieved its best result since World War II in last year's national election, finishing second and becoming the strongest political force in the formerly communist eastern regions. Recent polling indicates its support has grown beyond the 20.8% achieved then, potentially placing it in first place.
"2026 is a year of destiny for AfD," Weidel stated recently. Despite a commitment from mainstream parties to avoid cooperation, often referred to as a "firewall," AfD is aiming for 40% or more of the vote in the September 6 state election in Saxony-Anhalt. Such a result could lead to an absolute majority or a position from which it could seek to form a state government, potentially for the first time.
Another eastern state election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania follows two weeks later, with AfD expressing optimism about its prospects there as well. "AfD is standing before the gates of power, to some extent," observed Albrecht von Lucke, a political expert and editor of Blätter für deutsche und internationale Politik.
In 2023, AfD secured its first county administration leadership role in Thuringia, the state where Erfurt is located. However, subsequent elections saw mainstream candidates rally enough support to prevent similar victories. Leading a state government, which holds significant powers over education and security, would represent a far greater achievement for the party.
Concerns have been raised by opponents regarding the potential consequences of an AfD-led administration. These include the possibility of numerous civil servant dismissals and the risk of confidential information falling into far-right or even Russian hands. Gregor Maier, Thuringia's center-left interior minister, warned that "an AfD interior minister would be a security risk."
AfD maintains that it can govern effectively. "We will prove that we can do it better, and that is exactly what the old parties are afraid of," Tino Chrupalla said at a recent rally in Berlin. Von Lucke, however, suggested that governing Saxony-Anhalt would present a "huge challenge" for the party, potentially exacerbating internal conflicts and making success unlikely.
The AfD's rise has been facilitated by the low approval ratings of Chancellor Friedrich Merz's national coalition government, which took office 14 months ago. The government has pledged economic reforms but has yet to convince voters of its effectiveness amid a period of economic stagnation. Chancellor Merz has called for patience, stating, "We are in a reform process... and we are moving forward in this process."
Beyond its core anti-migration platform, AfD has successfully tapped into broader public discontent. The party has expressed support for the general approach of the Trump administration, criticized the war in Iran, and advocated for lifting sanctions against Russia while opposing arms deliveries to Ukraine. Chrupalla criticized Merz's stance, suggesting he "thinks he has to escalate against Russia, like in the Cold War. He should be building bridges."
Meanwhile, Germany's domestic intelligence agency has been in a legal dispute with AfD over its classification as a proven right-wing extremist group. While the agency made this assessment last year, a court suspended the designation pending a detailed review of the party's lawsuit. In February, a Cologne court ruled that the agency cannot use the designation while the case is ongoing.
Calls for a ban on the party are expected to be amplified by protesters expected at the convention. However, Germany's supreme court has historically set a high bar for banning political parties. Some opponents of a ban are concerned that a rejected petition could inadvertently benefit AfD. Merz and his conservative allies believe the government's priority should be demonstrating its ability to improve citizens' lives.
According to a 2025 report from the intelligence agency, there have been no indications that AfD has moderated its positions. The report noted that many statements by the party and its representatives reflect an ethnic and ancestry-based understanding of nationhood, contrary to the German constitution. It specifically pointed to calls for the "remigration" of millions of people and discussions of an alleged planned "great replacement" of the population.
AfD vehemently rejects accusations of extremism, arguing that the intelligence agency is being used for political purposes by mainstream parties.