An election in the eastern German region of Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday could result in the first far-right state government in the nation's post-World War II history. The vote for the state legislature in Saxony-Anhalt, a region of 2.1 million people west of Berlin, has drawn significant attention as it represents the most viable opportunity for the far-right, anti-migration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party to attain a governor's position.
Such an outcome would mark the most substantial achievement in the party's 13-year existence, occurring amid widespread discontent with the current national government, which has struggled to stimulate the country's sluggish economy. It could also represent a symbolic setback for Friedrich Merz, leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), whose party has governed Saxony-Anhalt for the past 24 years.
The AfD is currently the largest opposition party in Germany's national parliament and holds its strongest support in the eastern, formerly communist, and less prosperous regions, including Saxony-Anhalt. The party's candidate for governor, Ulrich Siegmund, has stated that "we will write history here."
Despite consistent polling strength, the AfD's prospects of actually governing remain uncertain, even if it secures a plurality of votes. On Sunday, the party aimed to win an absolute majority in the state legislature, which would circumvent the refusal of mainstream parties to cooperate with the AfD. Germany's domestic intelligence agency has classified the party's regional branch as a proven right-wing extremist group, though the AfD vehemently denies such accusations.
AfD national co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla recently stated their party's intention to "implement the law of the land — for example with a view to illegal migration — and ensure that Germany remains worth living in." They criticized the records of other parties, arguing that an absolute majority for the AfD is "almost the only chance to change course."
Merz has warned that an AfD government would be detrimental to the economy, stating, "If there were to be an absolute majority for a right-wing populist party next Monday, then international investors will think three times about whether they still invest in Saxony-Anhalt."
Siegmund has indicated he will only pursue election as governor if the AfD achieves an absolute majority, citing a need to prevent parties from reneging on pre-election promises. Whether the party can secure this majority is expected to depend, in part, on whether parties such as the center-left Social Democrats and the Greens surpass the 5% threshold required to retain parliamentary seats.
If the AfD does not achieve an absolute majority, it is unlikely to find a coalition partner. The incumbent governor, Sven Schulze of the CDU, has affirmed that he will not work with the far-right party and has the "100%" backing of his own party. However, if the AfD finishes first but falls short of a majority, Schulze may face a challenging task in forming a stable government.
In a similar situation two years ago in neighboring Thuringia, the AfD won the most votes but did not end up governing, with a CDU governor taking office under a minority government. Schulze could potentially attempt to form an alliance with smaller parties, though this would likely require at least tacit support from the Left Party, a hard-left group with which the CDU refuses to form coalitions.
Sunday's vote in Saxony-Anhalt precedes further significant elections on September 20 in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, another eastern region, a center-left government faces a strong challenge from the AfD. In Berlin, the CDU is currently leading the government.