German Chancellor Merz Schedules Crisis Meeting Amid State Election Fears

Chancellor Friedrich Merz has scheduled a crisis meeting as Germans began voting in two state elections on Sunday, with potential gains for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party fueling fears of new political shockwaves within the country and across the European Union.

Merz, 70, called an emergency session of his center-right CDU party leadership to discuss the initial results from the regional polls in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. He has also cleared his schedule for the following days, canceling a trip to the UN General Assembly, to manage any potential fallout from the votes.

The AfD, which is described as pro-Trump and friendly towards Moscow, recently dealt a significant defeat to Merz's CDU in the state of Saxony-Anhalt, leading to speculation about wobbling support for the chancellor within his own party. This election setback occurred as Merz's approval ratings have plummeted, and he has faced challenges in implementing promised economic and social welfare reforms with his center-left coalition partners, the SPD.

While polls suggest the AfD is likely to make further gains on Sunday, it is unlikely to secure power in either state. In Saxony-Anhalt, the party fell just short of an absolute majority.

In the northeastern coastal state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the CDU faces a main contest between the SPD, led by popular state premier Manuela Schwesig, and the AfD. According to public broadcaster ZDF, the AfD was polling at 36 percent against the SPD's 37 percent. Merz's CDU, meanwhile, was polling at just six percent, dangerously close to the five-percent threshold required to enter the state parliament. A result below this line would mark a historic low for the CDU and intensify pressure on Merz.

In the city-state of Berlin, the incumbent CDU is locked in a close race against the far-left party Die Linke, which has garnered support with promises of drastic measures to address a severe housing crisis and appeals to young voters. A defeat for the CDU in Berlin, particularly at the hands of Die Linke, would be another blow to Merz's leadership.

When Merz assumed office 16 months ago, he pledged to revitalize the economy, bolster the military to deter Russia, and curb irregular immigration. However, the AfD currently leads in nationwide polls, and Merz's personal approval ratings remain low, exacerbated by his sometimes blunt public remarks.

Pollster Roland Abold of Infratest Dimap described Merz's personal situation as "quite dramatic," noting that satisfaction with his political performance has reached its lowest recorded figures for an incumbent chancellor.

Commentators have pointed to international factors contributing to Merz's difficulties. The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have driven up energy prices, fueling a cost-of-living crisis. Concerns about Russia have prompted a significant German rearmament effort, which has been accelerated by the stance of U.S. President Donald Trump towards European NATO allies. Furthermore, China's economic ascent is transforming Germany's traditional export markets into formidable industrial competitors.

Despite these challenges, some analysts believe Merz is likely to weather the current political storm and complete his term until 2029. The AfD's recent electoral success in Germany has alarmed EU leaders, prompting calls from allies of French President Emmanuel Macron for a united front to counter the far-right. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has strongly criticized supporters of the AfD in his country, and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has warned of an "extremist threat" expanding globally.

Merz himself acknowledged being "shocked" by the recent election results and admitted that reforms are necessary. He described the outcome as the "heaviest electoral defeat the (CDU party) has suffered in years, in decades," stating that "Naturally, this will have to have consequences."