German Chancellor Calls Crisis Meeting Amid State Election Fears

Chancellor Friedrich Merz has scheduled a crisis meeting with his center-right CDU party leadership as Germans vote in two state elections on Sunday, with fears that further gains by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) could destabilize the government.

Polling stations opened at 8:00 a.m. local time and will remain open until 6:00 p.m. The election results could send new shock waves across Germany and impact the European Union. Merz has canceled a trip to the UN General Assembly to manage the potential aftermath of the votes.

The AfD, a party described as pro-Trump and friendly towards Moscow, recently delivered a significant defeat to the CDU in the state of Saxony-Anhalt, fueling speculation about Merz's standing within his own party. Merz's approval ratings have declined, and he has faced challenges in implementing promised economic and social welfare reforms with his center-left coalition partners, the SPD.

While polls suggest the AfD will see further gains on Sunday, it is unlikely to achieve power in either state. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the CDU is polling at a mere six percent, dangerously close to the five-percent threshold needed to enter the state parliament. A failure to cross this threshold would mark a historic low for the party and intensify pressure on Merz.

In Berlin, the CDU is in a close race with the far-left party Die Linke, which advocates for strong measures to address the housing crisis and appeals to younger voters. A defeat for the CDU in the capital would be another setback for Merz, particularly if it comes at the hands of Die Linke, a party that seeks to curb corporate power and has shown a tendency toward Moscow.

When Merz assumed office 16 months ago, he pledged to revitalize the economy, bolster military defenses against Russia, and curb immigration. However, the AfD currently leads in national polls, and Merz's personal approval rating hovers just above 10 percent, a situation not helped by his sometimes blunt public statements.

Pollster Roland Abold of Infratest Dimap described Merz's personal situation as "quite dramatic," noting that satisfaction with his performance has reached record lows for an incumbent chancellor.

Commentators suggest that external factors, such as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, have driven up energy prices and exacerbated a cost-of-living crisis. The ongoing security concerns, amplified by former US President Donald Trump's stance on European NATO allies, have also prompted a significant German rearmament effort. Furthermore, China's economic rise has transformed a key German export market into a formidable competitor.

Berenberg bank chief economist Holger Schmieding noted that while external crises have impacted Germany, voters tend to attribute blame to Merz's coalition rather than to those perceived as allies of the AfD. Despite these challenges, Schmieding believes Merz is likely to serve out his term until 2029.

The AfD's recent electoral success has alarmed European leaders. Allies of French President Emmanuel Macron have called for a united front to counter the far-right, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk criticized supporters of the AfD in his country. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has warned of an advancing "extremist threat" globally.

Merz himself has expressed shock at recent election results and acknowledged the need for reforms, calling a previous defeat "the heaviest electoral defeat the (CDU party) has suffered in years, in decades," and stating that "consequences" would follow.