A geophysicist who accurately predicted recent significant earthquakes in South America has issued a warning that California is now at an increased risk of experiencing a major tremor. Stefan Burns stated that the state is "in the crosshairs" of a potentially huge earthquake, with Southern California being particularly vulnerable due to its location across multiple fault lines.
Burns' forecast comes in the wake of a magnitude 7.4 earthquake that struck Colombia, resulting in over 200 deaths and thousands missing. This followed two earthquakes exceeding magnitude 7.0 in Venezuela on June 24. Burns had predicted that the Venezuelan tremors could trigger another large seismic event.
He believes the recent seismic activity in South America could influence geological faults on the West Coast of North America through a process of seismic energy "loading." Burns indicated that the elevated risk for California could persist for up to a year following the South American earthquakes. "It's that six-[month]-to-one-year time frame that we're worried about," he said in a YouTube livestream, adding that activity in Northern California makes it difficult to rule out that region as well.
California has long been anticipating "the Big One," a term used to describe a potentially catastrophic earthquake along the San Andreas Fault. Recent studies have also highlighted concerns regarding this fault, which is the state's longest and thus capable of generating the largest earthquakes.
Caltech seismologist Dr. Lucy Jones has previously modeled a magnitude 7.8 rupture scenario for the San Andreas Fault. Her simulations indicate that such an event would cause nearly two minutes of intense shaking, leading to widespread devastation, critical infrastructure failures, and transportation gridlock, particularly impacting water systems that cross the fault line.
Burns has a track record of seismic prediction, having warned of the Colombia earthquake more than two months prior. He noted a historical precedent where powerful Midwest earthquakes in the early 19th century were followed weeks later by significant seismic events in Caracas, Venezuela. Nine months after those, California reportedly experienced two earthquakes exceeding magnitude 7.0.
While Burns acknowledges that earthquake prediction is not an exact science, stating "there's an art and a science to this," he emphasizes the importance of paying attention to seismic trends. He suggested that the current pattern warrants caution, though he also noted that a devastating earthquake in California is not a certainty.