Gavin Newsom's Pledge to Kamala Harris Sparks Speculation of Strategic Maneuvering
The California governor's vow not to run in 2028 if Vice President Harris seeks the presidency has ignited debate among Democrats about his true intentions and potential impact on the party's future.
California Governor Gavin Newsom's public pledge to defer to Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2028 presidential race, made during a mid-August fly-fishing trip, has unsettled Democratic donors and strategists, many of whom view the move with skepticism and suspect a more complex political strategy.
Newsom's assertion, which aired earlier this week, prompted bewilderment from commentators like CNN's Jake Tapper, who questioned the logic of Newsom stepping aside for Harris, who has run for president twice without success, while Newsom has never mounted a national campaign. "I think he's messing with her, getting in her head," a former Harris advisor told the Daily Mail. Another unaligned Democratic strategist suggested Newsom's pledge could be a "sinister plot" to "isolate" Harris from potential donors by creating a "him vs. her" dynamic.
This interpretation suggests that donors interested in Newsom's potential candidacy would first need to persuade Harris not to run. The California governor had recently completed a four-event swing through South Carolina, the state chosen to inaugurate the Democratic primaries, raising questions about the timing and sincerity of his commitment.
Democrats view the pair as political protégés of Willie Brown, a significant figure in California politics. Their careers have seen parallel advancements: Newsom's mayoral run in San Francisco coincided with Harris's bid for district attorney; his run for lieutenant governor preceded her campaign for attorney general; and his gubernatorial aspirations led her to the open U.S. Senate seat in 2016. Harris subsequently pursued the presidency, though her two previous attempts were unsuccessful.
Some prominent Democrats unaffiliated with Newsom suggested that Harris's past unsuccessful presidential bids weaken her claim for deference this time. Al Sharpton, a civil rights leader, interpreted Newsom's pledge as a strategic positioning to signal he would not impede a Black woman's "second chance." Others believe the pledge could ultimately benefit Newsom, potentially earning him credit with Black voters for his deferential stance and securing Harris's coveted endorsement if she does not run.
Despite Newsom's pledge, Harris appears committed to a potential presidential run. Her 2024 campaign memoir, "107 Days," argues she deserves a full campaign with her own identity. On a recent podcast, she alluded to "The Godfather" with the line, "They pulled me back in," when asked about her return to the political arena, adding, "I don't know a life" outside politics. This sentiment was met with muted reception by some strategists.
Harris has been focusing her efforts on the South, particularly South Carolina, a state with a significant Black electorate. This strategy echoes Joe Biden's 2020 campaign, which found renewed momentum there after initial struggles in Iowa and New Hampshire. Strategists believe Harris is betting on a victory in South Carolina to attract donor support, which has been a point of concern for her campaign. LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, a prominent Democratic donor, has publicly stated that Harris faces "a very challenging path," and donors have expressed frustration over the substantial funds she expended in the 2024 election without achieving victory.
A recent HarrisX poll shows Harris leading the 2028 Democratic primary field with 42 percent of the vote, while Newsom is second with 17 percent, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is third with 12 percent. Harris holds a significant advantage among Black voters, with 60 percent support compared to Newsom's 14 percent.
Democrats anticipate a crowded and competitive 2028 field, with operatives preparing for intense campaigning in early primary states like South Carolina. "People have to come here first. You gotta show up and prove that you care," said South Carolina Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright. Democratic strategist Joe Trippi added, "But no one is going to hand her or any of the other potential candidates the nomination."
The political landscape now awaits clarity on whether Newsom will indeed curb his ambitions should Harris solidify hers. "This is not his first time in the state," Seawright noted of Newsom, "and his latest visit provided a shot of energy to his momentum."