A gambling watchdog group has identified the United States' Round-of-16 loss to Belgium in the 2026 World Cup as one of seven matches that may have involved irregular betting activity. The independent Group of Copenhagen, operating under the Council of Europe's Macolin Convention, flagged a specific prediction market line related to Folarin Balogun's availability for the Belgium match.
This line, titled 'Will Folarin Balogun play against Belgium?', reportedly opened on July 2, shortly after Balogun received a controversial red card in the Round-of-32 win against Bosnia and Herzegovina. On July 5, following an appeal that included intervention from President Donald Trump, FIFA opted to suspend Balogun's one-game ban, allowing him to participate in the subsequent match against Belgium. The Group of Copenhagen noted that no similar prediction markets were opened for other players who received red cards during the tournament.
The watchdog has requested an official explanation from FIFA regarding the Balogun case. While the full report from the Group of Copenhagen has not yet been published, a summary indicates the US loss to Belgium received a 'yellow notice,' the lowest of the group's three alert levels.
"The major problem is when there may be a conflict of interest and potential inside information on those issues," Christian Kalb, a gambling industry expert, told The Athletic regarding prediction markets. "When we speak of prediction markets, we can detect some unusual behaviors but we must be very careful as they can be used for hedging markets."
Separately, the Norwegian Football Federation (NFF) is planning to file a formal complaint with FIFA's ethics committee concerning President Donald Trump's involvement in the red card reversal. NFF President Lise Klaveness stated that bending such rules puts the integrity of the game at risk and that the verdict appeared to be influenced by external forces.
Despite the controversy, FIFA President Gianni Infantino maintained that the decision to suspend Balogun's ban was made autonomously by FIFA's disciplinary committee, adhering to applicable regulations and facts. He emphasized the importance of respecting the independence of these committees for the credibility and integrity of football.