South Carolina's closely watched Senate race has been reclassified as a "Toss-up" in the latest Fox News Power Rankings, a significant shift from its previous "Lean R" designation. This change comes as new polling indicates a tie between incumbent Senator Graham and Democratic challenger Annie Andrews at 48% each. President Trump is scheduled to campaign in South Carolina to support Graham.
Senate Outlook
The overall Senate landscape remains highly competitive, with both parties falling short of a clear majority in the current forecast. Democrats are favored in 48 seats, while Republicans are ahead in 46. This leaves the control of the Senate dependent on the outcomes of several toss-up races.
On a favorable night for Democrats, they could secure up to 54 seats, potentially winning most of the toss-up contests. Conversely, a strong showing for Republicans could allow them to maintain control with up to 52 seats, while also presenting opportunities to flip seats in states like Minnesota and New Hampshire.
Key State Shifts
Ohio: The race in Ohio has moved from "Toss-up" to "Lean D." Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown has consistently led in recent polls against Republican challenger Jon Husted, with a five-point advantage in the latest Fox News survey.
South Carolina: The reclassification to "Toss-up" reflects the tightening race and the belief among Republicans that it is an "uncomfortably close" contest. The President's visit underscores the race's critical nature.
Mississippi: This state moves from "Solid R" to "Likely R." While a Republican stronghold, the President's campaign activities there suggest it is considered competitive.
House of Representatives Forecast
The forecast for the House of Representatives indicates Democrats are likely to regain control, with projections suggesting they will secure at least 223 seats. A highly favorable outcome for Democrats could push their seat total to 240. Republicans are projected to hold 195 seats, with a strong night potentially bringing them to 212.
Nineteen House races have shifted in favor of Democrats this week, influenced by polling data, the strength of the top of the ticket, and a decline in support from rural voters. Kentucky's 6th Congressional District, previously "Lean R," has moved to "Toss-up" due to a combination of factors including a strong college-educated voter base and concerns among farmers.
Ohio Gubernatorial Race
The gubernatorial race in Ohio has also shifted, moving from "Toss-up" to "Lean D." This change is attributed not only to the effectiveness of a recent campaign ad but also to the underlying polling data, which shows Democratic candidate Amy Acton with a more consistent lead over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy.
Fox News' comprehensive midterm election coverage begins on Tuesday, November 3, with live results and projections for control of the House and Senate.