The Kinahan cartel is in a state of decline, with its remaining leaders likely to face arrest and extradition, according to Greg Gatjanis, former Head of Global Targeting for Sanctions at the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). Gatjanis, who was instrumental in orchestrating international sanctions against the crime group in April 2022, stated that the organization is now being shunned by the Colombian and Mexican cartels that were once key partners.
"The Kinahan gang is ‘decomposing’ since the arrest and extradition of alleged leader Daniel Kinahan and senior lieutenant Seán McGovern," Gatjanis said in an interview with the Irish Mail on Sunday. He added that cartel godfather Christy Kinahan Sr. and Daniel Kinahan's younger brother, Christy Kinahan Jr., have nowhere to hide, even from their base in Dubai.
"The UAE is not a safe place for them right now and they know it, because they already saw one get arrested, and they saw Seán McGovern get extradited," Gatjanis noted. "I would imagine the remaining leaders of the Kinahan organisation are fearful right now that they’re going to be next."
According to Gatjanis, the U.S. sanctions imposed in April 2022 were a significant turning point. The sanctions provided details of senior Kinahan gang members to 20,000 American banks globally, freezing substantial amounts of cash and making it difficult for leaders to access funds through credit cards or ATM machines linked to American banks.
"The arrest and extradition of alleged leader Daniel Kinahan is proof the crime gang ‘is on the decline’," Gatjanis stated. He believes that South American cartels are likely to reduce or sever communication with the Kinahans due to the increased scrutiny and legal actions, preferring to work with less high-profile partners.
"I would be surprised if they’re [Colombian and Mexican cartels] in communication… they’re not in communication with Daniel. I’ll tell you that. But are they still remaining in communication with the remaining figures of the Kinahan organisation in Dubai or elsewhere? It’s possible, but my money would be that communication has either declined or been severed by either side," he said. "The Mexicans probably don’t want to deal with them…. And they [the Kinahans] don’t want any more evidence being weighed against them."
Daniel Kinahan was extradited to Ireland shortly after his detention and has been charged with directing a criminal organization. Seán McGovern previously received a 24-year sentence for his involvement in the Hutch-Kinahan feud. Gatjanis highlighted that the Kinahan cartel's collusion with Colombian and Mexican drug traffickers constituted an indirect criminal pipeline that enriched cartels contributing to drug-related issues in the United States.
U.S. law enforcement has offered rewards of $5 million each for information leading to the arrests of Christy Kinahan Sr. and Christy Kinahan Jr., who remain in Dubai. Gatjanis believes these bounties have fostered distrust among those remaining within the organization. Daniel Kinahan is now officially categorized as 'captured' by the U.S. Department of State, though the reward for him is contingent upon a conviction.