Florida State vs. Miami: Betting Prediction and Analysis
Despite a challenging season, the Seminoles may be able to keep the score within three touchdowns against the Hurricanes.
Florida State faces a significant challenge this Saturday as they travel to Miami to take on the No. 3 ranked Hurricanes. The Seminoles enter the game as 21.5-point underdogs, with many observers suggesting that head coach Mike Norvell's tenure in Tallahassee could be nearing its end, especially if the team suffers another blowout loss.
Despite a difficult season marked by potential financial considerations and the ongoing search for a new athletic director, Florida State appears headed for its third consecutive losing season under Norvell and its fifth in his seven years. The pressure on Norvell is expected to intensify following this matchup, particularly as it precedes the team's bye week.
While a Florida State victory is not anticipated, the Seminoles may have the capability to keep the game within three scores. Miami's statistics have been impressive, but they have benefited from a relatively weaker schedule. The Hurricanes' games have typically featured a large point spread, and they have only faced one opponent ranked in the top 50 of Bill Connelly's SP+ power rankings: Wake Forest. In that game, Miami secured a 13-point road win, but Wake Forest managed to cover the spread and demonstrated offensive capability with 312 passing yards.
Florida State, conversely, has shown flashes of offensive competence, ranking 35th in FBS in offense per SP+. The team's passing offense is also notable, averaging 8.1 yards per pass, which ranks 41st nationally. This suggests that the Seminoles could potentially keep pace with Miami's offense long enough to stay within the projected point spread.
Furthermore, there are indications that Florida State's running game could pose a challenge to Miami's strong defense. Quarterback Ashton Daniels has proven to be a capable runner, averaging 4.6 yards per carry with 10 rushing touchdowns this season. Running back Ousmane Kromah is on track for a 1,000-yard season, averaging 5.7 yards per rush. The Seminoles' ground game has a reasonable chance to be the first team this season to surpass the 100-yard mark against Miami, which could force the Hurricanes' defense into unfamiliar territory.
Florida State is coming off a disheartening loss to Louisville. However, their preceding games against FBS opponents showed promise. The Seminoles competed closely with Alabama for three quarters on the road and covered the spread, and they secured a decisive 38-7 victory over Virginia. These performances indicate that a competitive Florida State team exists, and the hope is that this version will appear on Saturday at Hard Rock Stadium.
The betting recommendation is Florida State +21.5 (-110) on DraftKings Sportsbook.