Florida voters are heading to the polls Tuesday to decide between Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly in a gubernatorial election that is scrutinizing the state's recent conservative shift. This race comes as Democrats aim to reverse a gubernatorial drought, as no Democrat has won the Florida governor's race since 1994.
Jolly, a former Republican congressman who has since switched parties, has positioned himself as a centrist candidate seeking to move Florida beyond the divisive cultural issues that have characterized the tenure of outgoing Gov. Ron DeSantis. Donalds, a congressman endorsed by former President Donald Trump, has worked to portray Jolly as a liberal outlier. Donalds, who would be Florida's first Black governor, has also focused on engaging Black voters, a demographic that has historically favored Democrats.
The election's outcome may indicate whether Trump's declining popularity nationally will affect his adopted home state. Democrats have seen encouraging signs in recent special elections across Florida, with victories in areas ranging from Miami to Trump's Palm Beach.
Key issues in the campaign have included the rising cost of living and escalating homeowners insurance premiums, a particularly sensitive topic in a state prone to hurricanes.
Florida, once known as a quintessential swing state where elections were often decided by narrow margins, began to shift politically under DeSantis. His tenure saw a focus on cultural debates, including the signing of legislation critics dubbed the “Don't Say Gay” bill, which restricts instruction on sexual orientation and gender identity in early elementary grades. DeSantis secured a landslide reelection victory in 2022, leaving the state's Democratic Party in a weakened position.
Jolly faces significant challenges in his bid to revitalize the state's Democratic Party. Republicans hold a substantial voter registration advantage, and Donalds has significantly outraised Jolly in campaign funds. To counter these obstacles, Jolly has campaigned in traditional Democratic strongholds, such as Broward County, as well as in Republican-leaning areas in central Florida and the Panhandle.
Donalds has maintained a consistent campaign presence, balancing his support for Trump, including appearances at rallies, with efforts to subtly distance himself, such as minimizing references to the former president on his campaign website.
Regardless of the gubernatorial outcome, the state legislature is expected to remain under Republican control, with GOP majorities likely to continue. A competitive performance by Jolly, however, could potentially lead to Democrats breaking the Republican supermajority, granting them more influence in legislative proceedings.