Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is slated for confirmation as the presidential candidate for his father's Liberal Party on Saturday. His campaign, however, is navigating significant challenges, including difficulties in forming alliances and securing a running mate.
Bolsonaro, 45, has struggled to gain support from centrist parties, a key element in his father's previous presidential bid. Even his stepmother, Michelle Bolsonaro, a figure popular with evangelical voters, is reportedly not expected to attend the convention following recent public disagreements. Despite anticipated attendance from Argentina's President Javier Milei and endorsements from former Trump administration members, the absence of key allies is seen as a notable setback.
The senator has reportedly failed to recruit a high-profile female running mate, including attempts to persuade former Agriculture Minister Tereza Cristina. Cristina's Popular Party, which holds influence in Congress, had been expected to refrain from fielding its own presidential candidate, making its distancing from Senator Bolsonaro's bid surprising.
Political consultant Thomas Traumann noted that Senator Bolsonaro has encountered frequent obstacles. "This convention might be the moment in which he says what he thinks, what he intends to do as president. So far, he has been on the defensive, saying the campaign only starts in August,” Traumann said.
Senator Bolsonaro's campaign faced a significant blow in May after admitting he had sought funds from a jailed banker for a film about his father. More recently, some voters, business leaders, and politicians have attributed new U.S. tariffs on Brazilian exports, reaching up to 37.5%, to his visits to the White House and U.S. State Department. These tariffs went into effect Friday.
Further complicating his campaign, Michelle Bolsonaro released a video last week stating that Senator Bolsonaro had been disrespectful to her in a phone conversation. This occurred as many Brazilians were focused on the World Cup. Senator Bolsonaro also drew criticism for reiterating debunked claims about the reliability of Brazil's electronic voting system, echoing arguments that led to his father's ineligibility ruling by the country's top court.
Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year sentence for a coup attempt and is under house arrest.
In the days leading up to the convention, Senator Bolsonaro and his stepmother made efforts toward reconciliation. Senator Bolsonaro initiated this with a live broadcast apology, stating he felt "disproportionally persecuted." Michelle Bolsonaro accepted the apology on Friday, suggesting a potential family reconciliation as the campaign period begins. "Let's sit down, let's talk, let's adjust details and together we will get a big army of people who do good to rescue our Brazil," she said in a video.
Traumann indicated that Senator Bolsonaro faces a more challenging path in appealing to moderate voters compared to when he launched his bid in December. "He was showing himself as the moderate Bolsonaro, the one who took COVID vaccines, who is kind to his two daughters,” Traumann explained. "He has lost voters who are against the Workers' Party, but are also more moderate. Now he has the radical core of his campaign, and his attempt now is to stop that group from leaving him too.”
Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's Workers' Party is scheduled to confirm his reelection bid on August 2, also in Sao Paulo, a critical battleground for the upcoming election.