Five unions representing Long Island Rail Road workers have threatened to strike as soon as Thursday over wages and work rules, setting up a potentially crippling disruption for commuters and a political test for state officials and transit managers.

The unions are seeking a 16% wage increase over three years and have so far refused proposals to alter certain work rules, according to the Metropolitan Transportation Authority. The MTA said a shutdown by fewer than 3,500 railroad workers could strand roughly 350,000 daily commuters and severely hamper travel across Long Island and into New York City.

MTA officials say they have offered pay increases but have sought changes to work rules that the agency says drive costs above industry norms. Janno Lieber, MTA chief executive, criticized certain practices that the agency contends remain unique to the LIRR and increase operational expense. "A lot of folks [are] a little fed up hearing about these kind of abusive work rules that every other railroad in the United States seems to have gotten rid of, except for the Long Island Rail Road," he said Tuesday.

The MTA provided detailed pay figures as part of its case to lawmakers and the public, saying LIRR engineers average $49.92 an hour and annual pay for LIRR workers averages about $160,000, with some individual salaries reaching as high as $350,000. The agency also said employees receive health and retirement benefits it called among the most generous in the industry. The MTA has proposed larger raises in exchange for modifications to certain work rules, the agency said, while accusing the unions of rejecting binding arbitration.

Union leaders have framed their demands as efforts to keep pay in line with inflation and with wages at railroads elsewhere in the United States. In public statements, the unions said they are negotiating to protect members’ compensation and working conditions; they contend that pay and benefits reflect job responsibilities and the cost of living in the region.

MTA officials cautioned that a deal meeting the unions’ 16% demand without work-rule changes would create significant fiscal pressure. The agency estimates such an agreement could create a roughly $350 million gap in LIRR finances and said it could encourage similar demands from other labor groups, potentially increasing operating costs across the transit system.

Transit contingency plans have been discussed by city and state officials, but the MTA said alternative service such as supplemental buses would accommodate only a limited fraction of typical rail riders. The agency warned that widespread driving would exacerbate congestion and commuting times for those who could not access alternative public transit.

The dispute revives long-standing tensions between the MTA and labor groups over pay, staffing and operational rules that date back years. Some commentators and officials have pointed to past contract negotiations under former state administrations as part of the context for current labor costs, while others emphasize recent inflation and a tight labor market in transportation.

The potential strike also introduces political pressure for Gov. Kathy Hochul, who faces re-election next year. Elected officials and business groups on Long Island and in the city have urged a quick resolution to avoid disruption to employers and schools. The governor’s office and MTA leaders have so far urged both sides to continue negotiations, and MTA officials said they remain prepared to pursue further talks ahead of the union deadlines.

As the deadline approaches, the MTA and the unions are positioned for a high-stakes bargaining period with significant consequences for commuters, transit finances and state politics. Both sides have signaled willingness to make their cases publicly while talks continue, leaving the possibility of last-minute agreements alongside the risk of a shutdown that would ripple across the region.