BERLIN -- German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is facing increased pressure following a significant defeat for his party in a regional election, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party secured a strong victory. The AfD's performance in the state of Saxony-Anhalt has raised the prospect of the party leading its first state government, a development with considerable national implications.
The AfD, which has been classified as extremist by Germany's domestic intelligence agency in some regions, narrowly missed achieving a majority in Sunday's vote. This outcome directly challenges Merz's pledge to diminish the AfD's influence, highlighting his administration's struggle to curb the party's growth.
This regional success for the AfD also presents a substantial distraction for Germany and Merz amid pressing international concerns, including Russia's ongoing aggression in Ukraine, suspected sabotage campaigns targeting NATO countries, and complex relations with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Coalition Negotiations Ahead
Coalition talks in Saxony-Anhalt are anticipated to be challenging, with AfD gubernatorial candidate Ulrich Siegmund expressing his intention to become the first head of government from the far-right party at the state level. Siegmund stated Sunday that voters' desire for political change, reflected in the more than 44% vote share for the AfD, "must be implemented after the election."
The election result places a burden on the chancellor, who will be partly accountable for his party's substantial loss after leading the state for the past 24 years. The Christian Democrats (CDU), Merz's center-right party, saw its electoral support cut in half, while the AfD more than doubled its share of the vote. This outcome could also bolster the AfD's performance in subsequent state elections.
While Siegmund has ruled out an AfD minority government, his party might potentially form a coalition with the hard-left BSW party. Both parties share a pro-Russia stance and oppose immigration, though they differ on other issues. The BSW's lead candidate, Thomas Schulze, indicated his party's openness to assisting an AfD minister-president into office.
Forming a government that excludes the AfD would necessitate an unprecedented coalition involving all other elected parties: the CDU, Social Democrats, the Greens, the Left Party, and the BSW. Such a five-party coalition is considered highly improbable and complex.
Another possibility includes newly elected lawmakers from other parties defecting to the AfD, potentially granting them the three additional seats needed for a majority. Regardless, coalition negotiations are expected to be lengthy, likely extending over several weeks.
National and International Reactions
Despite Saxony-Anhalt being one of Germany's smaller states, the election garnered significant attention both domestically and internationally. Modern Germany has not yet had a far-right or right-wing populist party lead a national, state, or major city government, a situation often viewed through the lens of the country's Nazi past.
The election outcome prompted varied reactions globally. Billionaire Elon Musk congratulated the AfD on its victory via his platform X, to which Siegmund responded by welcoming "strong and constructive cooperation" and suggesting Germany would become "a place worth investing in."
U.S. President Donald Trump shared a screenshot of the election projection on his Truth Social platform without comment. Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev praised the outcome as a "historic win for the pragmatic AfD" that would control migration and "restore Germany and Europe by leading the commons-sense approach."
Leaders of right-wing populist parties in Spain and Portugal also offered congratulations. Santiago Abascal, leader of Spain's Vox party, hailed the result as offering "great hope for Germany and Europe." André Ventura of Portugal's Chega party linked the AfD's success to growing concerns over immigration, corruption, and the erosion of freedom and identity.
In contrast, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that "in Poland, only idiots or traitors could rejoice the AfD triumph in Germany."
In the election, the AfD secured 43.8% of the vote, more than double its result from five years prior. Merz's CDU party garnered 17.2%, losing approximately half its support. The Social Democrats, Greens, and the Left Party each received around 9%, while the BSW party secured 5.3%. Turnout was high at 77.8%, with the AfD appearing to attract voters who had abstained in the previous election.