The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is projected to secure a significant victory in a regional election held Sunday in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt. The result raises the possibility of the party forming Germany's first far-right state government since World War II, though its ability to govern independently or form a coalition is uncertain.
Projections from public broadcasters ARD and ZDF, based on exit polls and early vote counts, indicate the AfD could capture over 44% of the vote in the state of 2.1 million people. This represents a substantial increase from its performance five years ago. The candidate for governor for the AfD, Ulrich Siegmund, declared that voters had sent a clear signal that "things cannot carry on like this" and that the result was also a message "toward Berlin."
This projected win is seen as a blow to Chancellor Friedrich Merz's center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which has led Saxony-Anhalt for 24 years. The CDU was polling at approximately 18.5%, a significant loss of support. Other parties, including The Left Party, the Social Democrats, and the Greens, were each projected to receive around 9% of the vote.
AfD had aimed for an absolute majority in the state legislature, which would have allowed it to govern without forming coalitions and bypass the established refusal of mainstream parties to cooperate with the far-right party. However, early projections suggested the party might fall just short of this threshold, leaving its governing prospects in question. The formation of a state government led by the AfD would mark a significant moment in the party's 13-year history, particularly during a period of voter discontent with the national government's handling of the economy.
In Germany, states possess considerable autonomy, overseeing areas such as security and education. State governments also hold seats in the Bundesrat, Germany's upper house of parliament, which approves certain federal legislation. Saxony-Anhalt holds four of the Bundesrat's 69 votes.
AfD's national co-leader, Alice Weidel, described the projected outcome as "sensational" and stated that the party had received a clear mandate to govern. She conveyed an openness to collaborate with "all who want to make Saxony-Anhalt better and move Germany forward."
Conversely, the incumbent governor, Sven Schulze of the CDU, acknowledged AfD's position as the strongest political force and indicated that his party would need to consider the implications of the result. However, Franziska Hoppermann, the CDU's national general secretary, reiterated the party's stance against working with the AfD, labeling it a "right-wing extremist party" with policies that could lead to economic turmoil and a different social model, and citing its pro-Russia stance.
While AfD is the largest opposition party in Germany's national parliament, its influence is concentrated in the eastern, less prosperous regions. The AfD's regional branch in Saxony-Anhalt has been classified by the domestic intelligence agency as a proven right-wing extremist group, an accusation the party disputes.
Historically, Germany has not had a far-right or right-wing populist party lead a national, state, or major city government. In a similar situation two years prior in the neighboring state of Thuringia, the AfD won a regional election but did not ultimately form the government. Instead, a CDU governor took power with a minority government, facing an AfD that was far from a majority.
Siegmund has outlined priorities including an intensified deportation effort and the reduction of incentives for immigration, which he contends are exploited within the social system. He also expressed a desire to withdraw Saxony-Anhalt from the regional public broadcaster, citing concerns about "disinformation." The AfD's platform in the state also includes allowing homeschooling, which is not currently permitted in Germany, and banning the display of rainbow flags in schools while promoting the national flag. The party opposes financial aid to Ukraine and advocates for the lifting of sanctions against Russia, though these are matters beyond the purview of state governments.