The political landscape across Europe is shifting as nationalist and anti-immigration parties, often originating from the fringes, are gaining significant influence and, in some cases, poised to take power. This trend is exemplified in Germany, where the Alternative for Germany (AFD) party is expected to secure a strong position in state elections in Magdeburg, Saxony-Anhalt.
Final polls indicate the AFD could capture 41 percent of the vote in the Magdeburg elections, a substantial increase for a party that emerged 13 years ago as an anti-immigration movement. Academics suggest the party's growing popularity is linked to former Chancellor Angela Merkel's 2015 decision to open Germany's borders to approximately 1.3 million migrants, many fleeing conflict in Syria. The influx is cited by historians as a direct contributor to the AFD's electoral success. Professor Andreas Rodder, a contemporary history expert at Mainz University, predicts that efforts by mainstream parties to isolate the AFD will likely fail to prevent it from gaining power.
The AFD currently holds 152 seats in the German Bundestag and polls suggest it could win a national election if one were held today. The party's messaging, often disseminated through social media, warns of the dangers of mass immigration and promises to deport undocumented migrants. This narrative resonates with younger voters who feel their futures are at stake.
Incidents of crime and terror attacks attributed to migrants have heightened public concern in Germany and across the EU. In Magdeburg, a 2016 gang rape by Afghan refugees and a 2024 Christmas market attack by a Saudi-born psychiatrist who was also a refugee have left lasting impressions. Young voters, such as 18-year-old Elias Megankoth and 17-year-old Max Reinecke, express frustration with the current situation, advocating for stricter policies on immigration and the deportation of those who break the law.
Migrants residing in Germany express anxiety about the potential rise of the AFD. Babe Fall, a delivery driver from Mali, fears increased aggression if the AFD wins power. Kamir Hashemi, who arrived from Afghanistan with his family in 2016, values the respect he has received in Germany but anticipates an AFD victory will alter this dynamic. Similarly, a Syrian Kurd operating a salon fears his Iranian and Iraqi customers may be forced to leave the country.
The surge in support for right-wing parties is not confined to Germany. In France, Marine Le Pen's National Rally leads in presidential election polls, advocating for a referendum on the wearing of hijabs by Muslim women. Poland, Portugal, and Croatia are also experiencing a rise in support for right-wing populist parties. Spain is particularly affected by the issue of illegal immigration, with a significant influx of migrants from North Africa into its enclave of Ceuta. This has led to criticism from 22 EU member states regarding the Spanish government's handling of the situation. Reports of migrants engaging in criminal activity in Ceuta, including alleged rapes of fellow migrants, have intensified pressure on Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. Recent polls suggest a coalition of the Conservative People's Party and the hard-right Vox Party could win a majority in Spain, leading to constitutional amendments for stricter border and immigration controls.
The shift in the European political climate is described as a revolution, comparable in seismic impact to the period 11 years prior when Germany welcomed refugees with open arms.