A recent victory by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in a state election has heightened concerns about the ascendant far-right across Europe, as voters express discontent over issues ranging from affordability and Russian aggression to trade disputes with China and the United States. However, this electoral success is not a uniform trend, with notable reversals and some far-right parties softening their platforms to form coalitions.
The AfD's win in Saxony-Anhalt, while significant, did not secure an absolute majority, preventing the formation of the first far-right state government since the Nazi era, though such a possibility remains.
Leaders of far-right parties across Europe have celebrated the German result as they prepare for upcoming elections. The outcomes of these votes will indicate whether this marks a significant shift away from the post-World War II anti-fascist consensus or simply reflects voter frustration with incumbent governments.
In Italy, the rise of Giorgia Meloni, whose party has neo-fascist roots, to the prime ministership demonstrated the far-right's growing influence. Despite campaigning as an EU-skeptic, Meloni adopted a more moderate approach in office, leading one of Italy's most stable governments in decades.
Far-right parties have also integrated into governments and secured key ministerial positions in Finland, Croatia, and Slovakia. Populist, anti-immigrant parties experienced significant gains in the 2024 European Union parliamentary elections, mirroring their increasing support across the 27-member bloc. In response, the center-right European People's Party has increasingly collaborated with the far-right, notably on a migration overhaul that drew criticism from center-left allies and human rights organizations.
"It’s a bit of a paradox: you partner up with them to prevent them from getting more powerful," noted Sophia Russack, a fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels.
Despite the broader trend, there have been setbacks. Viktor Orbán, who for 16 years was a prominent far-right figure in Europe, lost a landslide election in Hungary. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders disbanded a coalition government when his allies resisted his stringent immigration policies.
The United Kingdom's Reform party, advocating anti-immigration stances, has increased its influence, performing well in local elections. Led by Nigel Farage, the party has resonated in areas that supported Brexit in 2016, though it has recently faced electoral defeats and questions about its funding.
Jeremy Cliffe, editorial director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, described these electoral setbacks as a "double-edged message," indicating that while these parties can be defeated, they are not necessarily ineffective when in power.
Upcoming elections in France and Spain present further opportunities for the far-right. In Spain, the anti-immigrant Vox party is poised for gains and has already formed governing agreements with the center-right Popular Party in regional elections. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has warned that the AfD's success is a signal of the growing far-right threat.
In France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen is a leading contender to succeed President Emmanuel Macron. Her party, National Rally, has historically opposed the EU and strict immigration policies. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot has characterized the German vote as a win for the "neo-Nazi, anti-European and pro-Putin far right," urging a reevaluation of the despair driving such movements.